September 18th News
I. Price Trends
According to the monitored data, as of September 18, the average price of top-grade cyclohexane for industrial use in China was 6,833 CNY/ton. The market-monitored average price on September 16 was 6,667 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.61% and a significant monthly increase. Regional quotes showed a clear divergence: the mainstream prices in Shandong Luxi/Haili ranged from 7,600 to 9,000 CNY/ton, Shenmu Fuyou at 7,156 CNY/ton, and Lushenfa (methylcyclohexane) at 8,400 CNY/ton.
2. Market Analysis
Upstream costs: The rigid upward shift in the cost chain from pure benzene to crude oil is the primary driver behind this round of price increases, creating a rigid transmission effect along the sequence "crude oil → pure benzene → cyclohexane." Concerns about navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, driving up geopolitical premiums. As a result, the benchmark price for pure benzene has reached 9,634 CNY per ton, up 18.54% from the beginning of the month. Sinopec has raised its listed price by 550 yuan to 9,900 CNY per ton. Port inventories in Jiangsu stand at just 38,000 tons—a historically extremely low level—resulting in tight spot market liquidity.
Supply side: Plant maintenance of cyclohexanone in Shandong has affected the external sales volume of by-product cyclohexane, leading to a tight spot supply in the region and a strong intention to maintain prices.
Demand side: There is a structural differentiation, with a clear conflict between "rising costs and weak demand." About 90% of cyclohexane is used for the production of adipic acid and caprolactam (the raw materials for nylon 66 and nylon 6), and the demand follows the PA6/PA66 chain.
Caprolactam-PA6 chain: Driven by cost, the spot price of liquid caprolactam in East China is 14,320 CNY/ton, and the weekly settlement price has been increased. However, the PA6 polymerization process is already incurring losses (high-speed spinning -338 CNY/ton, conventional spinning -160 CNY/ton). The orders for the textile industry during the "Golden September" peak season have not met expectations, and filament companies are mainly conducting rigid demand procurement, showing resistance to high prices.
Adipic acid/cyclohexanone: Prices have risen to the range of 8,100 to 9,500 CNY/ton, but factories are theoretically losing over 1,000 CNY per ton. Downstream PBAT and PA66 operations are at low levels (less than 50%), resulting in limited actual consumption.
Downstream demand: Caprolactam (the largest downstream sector): The industry is operating at about 68%, with liquid transactions in East China at 12,100 CNY/ton; however, its downstream PA6 is operating at only 64%, and the yarn/injection molding sector is in the off-season, with only low inventory replenishment and a low willingness to chase higher prices. Adipic acid/cyclohexanone: Adipic acid is operating at 64%, with prices following up to 8,100–8,300 CNY/ton, but theoretical losses for factories exceed 1,000 CNY/ton; downstream PBAT is operating at about 20%, and PA66 is less than 50%. Cyclohexanone plants are operating at 70–75%, with prices slightly rising. Solvents and rubber additives: Due to summer environmental protection measures and the off-season, small orders dominate, and overall, downstream sectors have a low acceptance of high cyclohexane prices, with large orders being rare.
III. Future Market Forecast
The cyclohexane analyst believes: High-level fluctuation, be cautious of cost loosening and negative demand feedback in the short term (1-2 weeks): It is expected that cyclohexane will remain strong at high levels, supported by factors such as the "dried up" port inventory of pure benzene, repeated geopolitical situations, pre-holiday stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and refineries' defensive reduction in load. The cost base remains firm.
