September 21 report:
Recently, the spot price of toluene has been under pressure and declining. The signal from the average difference indicates that the current market is in a weak rebound (bearish) oscillation phase. In the short to medium term, prices are at a relatively high level. Affected by the weakening of crude oil and aromatic futures, as well as the low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers, the short-term market is operating weakly. Industry participants should closely monitor fluctuations in the cost side and changes in downstream demand.
I. Table of Finite Differences
The most recent available data is up to September 20, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of 2026.09.20 | Value as of 2026.09.19 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -123.33 | -130.00 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -201.67 | -176.66 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 306.67 | 381.33 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current combination of changes in the mean differences is (+, -, -), which constitutes a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current price trend is oscillating (with a bearish bias), reason: the 5-day average difference has increased compared to the previous day, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences have decreased. The directions of change for these three are not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for an oscillating trend, and the bearish signal indicates a significant short-term downward pressure.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Toluene's 60-day cycle price is in the 4th tier (upper-middle), its 3-month cycle price is in the 4th tier (upper-middle), and its 1-year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (middle). The short to medium-term upside potential is relatively limited, and with the weakening of the cost side, there is sufficient downward momentum.
Five, Price Trend Chart
VI. Latest Spot Market Updates
On September 20, 2026, the mainstream quotation for toluene in the East China region was 8,350-8,400 CNY/ton, a decrease of 150 CNY/ton from the previous trading day; the South China market's mainstream quotation was 8,500-8,600 CNY/ton, with a corresponding decrease.
Recently, international crude oil and aromatics futures have been fluctuating downward, with cost support weakening. Chinese petrochemical companies have collectively lowered their factory prices, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and trading within the market is sluggish.
On September 18, 2026, the mainstream quotation for toluene in the Shandong region of China was 8,200-8,230 CNY/ton, a decrease of 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. Before the holiday, traders actively sold goods, increasing the supply in the market, and downstream buyers stocked up according to their needs.
VII. Overview of the Industry Chain—Upstream and Downstream Sectors
Upstream commodity: Naphtha
Downstream products: mesitylene, trimethylchlorosilane, methylcyclohexane, benzyl chloride, benzaldehyde, TDI, PX, isomeric xylene, toluene sulfonic acid, etc.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
