This week, PET bottle chips surged and then fell back, with both spot and futures weakening

May 9th News

This week, PET bottle chips surged and then fell back, with both spot and futures weakening. The core drivers were the pullback in crude oil prices and the collapse in costs, but low inventories and strong exports provided a bottom support, limiting the price decrease.

I. This Week’s Price Trends (May 5–8, East China/Water Bottle Grade, Tax-Inclusive Cash Price)

• Spot: Initially increased then decreased, with the overall level dropping.

◦ Monday: 9,400 CNY/ton (up 3.13% from the previous period)

◦ Friday (May 8): 9,220 CNY/ton, down 220 CNY/ton from the previous week.

◦Mainstream negotiation range: 9,150–9,250 CNY/ton

• Futures (PR main contract):

◦ Friday’s closing price: 8,276 CNY/ton, down 348 yuan from the previous week.

◦ Trend: High-level pullback, weak oscillation

II. Core Market Analysis

1. Cost side: Crude oil prices have fallen, PTA has weakened, and support is loosening.

• Crude Oil: With rising expectations of Middle East peace talks, oil prices have retreated from their highs and are experiencing wide fluctuations.

•PTA: With the pullback in crude oil, prices have declined, weakening the cost support for bottle chips.

• Ethylene glycol: Synchronized weakness, polyester comprehensive costs decreased month-over-month in China.

2. Supply side: Stable start-up rates, low inventory levels, and robust exports

• Capacity utilization rate: 71.4% (unchanged from the previous week); output: 331,000 tons

• Inventory: Factory inventory is approximately 7 days, at a low level, and there is strong willingness to maintain prices.

• Exports: In March, exports reached 582,500 tons (+35.45%), with exports accounting for over 60% of total sales and a robust order book.

3. Demand side: Strong domestic trade, impressive foreign trade, and peak season yet to be realized

• Domestic trade: The peak season for soft drinks has started, but purchases are cautious, mainly small orders based on immediate needs.

• Foreign trade: With force majeure events at overseas facilities and rising logistics costs, there’s a noticeable shift of Chinese orders.

• Transactions: Overall activity is light, with price negotiations taking center stage; downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

III. Technical Analysis

According to the commodity market analysis system, the future trend of PET can be analyzed from two dimensions:

1. When the 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average, the probability of a rise is higher. Conversely, the probability is lower. The chart shows that starting from April 22, the 10-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average, and subsequently, PET began to rise. Starting from May 7, the 10-day moving average turned downward and approached the 20-day moving average, indicating a risk of a decline.

2. Current location

Now, PET's 10-day position is at the midpoint, while its 20-day and 30-day positions are both at high levels. Currently, PET is at a high level within its range, indicating a risk.

IV. Future Market Forecast (May 9–May 15)

• Short-term (1–3 days): Slight downward oscillation, with a trading range of 9,050–9,300 CNY/ton.

◦Negative factors: Crude oil and PTA continue to decline, with insufficient cost support.

◦Positive factors: Low inventory levels + strong exports, limiting price declines.

• Mid-term (mid-to-late May): Fluctuating bottoming out, awaiting validation during the peak season.

◦ Key variables: Crude oil price trends, downstream restocking efforts, and new order conditions.