China's Natural Rubber Prices Show a Slight Decline

October 14, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, the recent (10.1~10.14) Chinese natural rubber spot market showed a weak and slight decline, with the price of natural rubber in the Chinese market at around 14,391 CNY/ton as of October 14th, down 1.87% from 14,666 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month. On one hand, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen, weakening the support for the natural rubber market; on the other hand, during the holiday period, the downstream tire industry operated at a reduced capacity, having a negative impact on the natural rubber market. Despite the continued small-scale destocking trend of natural rubber inventory at ports, influenced by costs and demand, the natural rubber market has slightly declined. As of October 14th, the mainstream price of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao whole milk rubber in Qingdao area in 24 years was reported to be between 14,200 and 14,550 CNY/ton.

As of October 14th, the price of latex in Thailand was 54.10 Thai Baht per kilogram, a decrease of 1.28% from 54.80 Thai Baht per kilogram on September 30th. Despite recent typhoons affecting Hainan and Yunnan regions in China, as well as major production areas in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and Vietnam, causing some tapping operations to be obstructed, the market generally expects a concentrated release of supply after the weather improves in the fourth quarter, leading to an overall trend of high prices gradually falling.

Recently (October 1st to October 14th), the natural rubber inventory has continued to decrease slightly, which is more favorable for natural rubber. As of October 12, 2025, the combined inventory volume of bonded and general trade natural rubber in the Qingdao area was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period, with a decline rate of 0.11%.

Recently (10.1~10.14), due to the impact of the National Day holiday, the average operating rate of downstream tire production significantly decreased, having a bearish effect on the natural rubber market. As of October 9th, the operating rate of semi-steel tire production in Chinese tire enterprises slightly increased to around 42%; in Shandong, the operating rate of all-steel tire production in tire enterprises slightly decreased to about 42%.

Market Forecast: Currently, natural rubber raw material prices have retreated from their recent highs, while downstream production remains at low levels. However, port inventories of natural rubber continue to decline slightly overall. Taken together, we expect the natural rubber market to remain weak and volatile ahead of the holiday period.