September 20th, news:
Since September, the SBR (styrene-butadiene rubber) market in China has experienced a trend of first rising then falling, with high volatility. At the beginning of the month, driven by crude oil and butadiene, the price of SBR in the East China market rose from 15,266 CNY/ton to 16,216 CNY/ton, an increase of 6.22%. In the middle of the month, due to downstream resistance to high prices and the approaching double festivals, tire companies controlled production, resulting in only small orders for necessary demand. The price fell from 16,216 CNY/ton to 15,691 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.24%.
Butadiene and styrene prices initially declined before rebounding, with the overall trend trending upward, providing cost‑based support for high‑level pricing of styrene‑butadiene rubber. At the beginning of the month, butadiene prices rose on the back of cracker maintenance and higher crude oil prices; by mid‑month, as restarted units gradually resumed production and port inventories increased, prices pulled back. On the styrene side, plant restarts proceeded one after another, with industry operating rates climbing to around 66%, while relatively low port inventories offered some support. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of September 20, butadiene was trading at 13,833 CNY/ton, up 3.75% from the month’s opening level of 13,333 CNY/ton, but down 6.74% from the period’s peak of 14,833 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, styrene stood at 10,230 CNY/ton, an 8.14% increase from the month’s opening price of 9,460 CNY/ton.
Butadiene rubber plants that were previously under maintenance have gradually restarted, leading to an overall increase in industry operations and an evident rise in supply. However, social inventory levels remain at a moderate level, with no significant pressure from inventory accumulation.
Downstream tire production has declined, providing insufficient support for styrene-butadiene rubber. As of September 11, the semi-steel tire operating rate in China was 65.53%; the all-steel tire operating rate was 63.53%. The inventory turnover for semi-steel tires is 44.7 days, and for all-steel tires, it is 36.4 days, with weak demand for commercial and passenger vehicles. Although tire companies have issued price increase notices of 2%-5%, high raw material costs are compressing profits, and factories are only maintaining rigid demand procurement, showing little willingness to actively replenish inventory. The peak season performance has fallen short of expectations.
Looking ahead, international crude oil prices are expected to remain supported by geopolitical factors in the short term, and cost‑based support for styrene‑butadiene rubber is likely to persist. Meanwhile, downstream tire production capacity is unlikely to rebound quickly, and with demand lacking sustained momentum, SBR prices are expected to trade within a narrow range.
