In April, the Chinese urea market maintained a strong performance

April 27 News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of April 27, the reference average price for small and medium-sized granular urea in the Chinese market was 1,880 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.80% from the reference average price of 1,865 CNY/ton on April 1.

II. Market Analysis

Supply and Demand Situation

This month, the urea market price in China has been fluctuating and rising. Recently, due to rumors of an upcoming release of export quotas exceeding expectations, combined with a significant price difference between domestic and international markets, the urea futures market has seen a significant increase, and the spot market has remained firm at high levels. Influenced by the situation in the Middle East, raw material prices have remained strong, providing robust support on the cost side. This month, the operating rate of urea enterprises in China has been at a high level, with many pending orders, leading to a reduction in the supply of the spot market. The downstream compound fertilizer market is consolidating, with procurement of urea mainly based on demand.

Market Conditions

As of April 27, the urea market price in Shandong region is around 1840-1910 CNY/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1830-1880 CNY/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810-1890 CNY/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1850-1910 CNY/ton.

According to the weekly K-line chart from February 2, 2026, to April 20, 2026, the price of urea in China fluctuated. In April, the price of urea in China increased more, with the largest increase occurring in the week of April 6, at 0.81%.

III. Future Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe: Recently, the urea market has been in a stalemate. As spring fertilization approaches its end, downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and the market supply and demand are stable. It is expected that in the short term, the urea prices in China will continue to be in a stalemate and consolidation phase.

4. Technical Analysis

From the spot commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that the current 10-day moving average of urea has crossed above the 20-day moving average and is running steadily, which aligns with the trend of consolidation after a rise to a high level.

Auxiliary indicators show that the current urea price is at the upper end of the five-tier pricing range. Although the forecast suggests a continued upward trend in urea prices, the magnitude of the price increase is expected to be limited. Therefore, we recommend adopting a cautious approach.