In mid-to-late September 2026, China’s DOP spot price, after a brief, phased pullback, staged a concentrated rebound at month-end. Based on the mean‑deviation method, it is currently in a strong rebound phase within a trading range; while short-term sentiment remains bullish, this is a corrective rally. With prices across the 60‑day, three‑month, and one‑year cycles all elevated, upside potential is limited. Industry participants should closely monitor upstream cost fluctuations in iso‑octanol and phthalic anhydride, as well as downstream PVC plasticizer demand dynamics.
Daily Short-Term Price Trend Analysis for DOP
Data Note: The latest available data is up to September 28, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Deviation Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of 2026.09.28 | Value as of 2026.09.27 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference D5 | 47.34 | 6.67 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference D10 | -63.59 | -102.09 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference D20 | -0.62 | 39.79 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current signal indicates a strong rebound (bullish, of a rebound nature).
3. Conclusion on Trend Directions
Currently, the DOP is trading in a range-bound pattern in the short term.
Reason: The combination of changes in the three differences compared to the previous day is (+, +, -), which does not show a completely consistent directional change. This does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend and is considered a strong rebound within a volatile range. It is bullish in the short term but is of a rebound nature. From the perspective of spot price validation: On September 23-24, multiple DOP manufacturers in China continuously lowered their quotes, with the maximum single-day decrease by a single manufacturer reaching 200 CNY per ton. On September 28, mainstream manufacturers such as Zhejiang Hongbo, Shandong Shengfeng, and Zhenjiang Liancheng collectively raised their quotes, with the maximum single-day increase by a single manufacturer reaching 155 CNY per ton. The rebound in the spot market is fully consistent with the signal from the differences.
4. Position Space Reference
Prices for the DOP 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles are all in the fifth tier (high range), leaving limited room for further gains and posing a relatively high risk when chasing higher prices.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Industry Chain Reference
Upstream core influencing raw materials: n-octanol, phthalic anhydride, 2-ethylhexanol, changes in the cost end have a significant effect on DOP price transmission; downstream core demand areas: PVC plasticizers, changes in the operating rate of the demand end will directly affect the consumption speed of DOP.
7. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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