October 9th News
Key Introduction
[Daily Core Insights on Urea Price Trends] This analysis is based on the latest data as of October 8, 2026, covering urea price differentials, industry chain dynamics, and sector news. Using the differential‑based quantitative approach, we assess the price trend: currently, urea prices are in a strong, consolidating phase of range‑bound volatility, trading near the upper end of their one‑year cycle. Supported by shrinking overseas urea production capacity and rising upstream feedstock costs, the short-term outlook leans toward firmness. In the medium to long term, it will be crucial to monitor how changes in global production capacity affect the supply‑demand balance.
Urea Price Trend Analysis Daily Report
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | (2026.10.8) | (2026.10.7) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -2.00 | 0.00 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -0.25 | -0.50 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 8.37 | 8.00 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current mean difference change symbol combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current urea price trend is fluctuating (with a bullish bias), reason: the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for fluctuation. The corresponding combination signals a strong consolidation with a bullish bias, indicating a stronger short-term trend.
4. Position Space Reference
Urea 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all at a mid-high level (4th tier), with relatively limited upside potential in the short term. The increase in the prices of upstream raw materials such as liquid ammonia and liquefied natural gas provides strong cost support for urea.
5. Trend chart display
6. Industry Reference News
Supply side: On October 8, 2026, Canadian fertilizer giant Nutrien announced that, due to constrained natural gas supplies and ongoing uncertainty, it would indefinitely shut down its nitrogen fertilizer (ammonia/urea) operations at Point Lisas in Trinidad, reinforcing expectations of a contraction in global urea supply.
Cost side: On October 8, several urea producers raised their liquid ammonia prices by RMB 200–270 per ton, while liquefied natural gas prices remain at a one-year high, providing strong cost‑side support.
Upstream and downstream connections: The upstream of urea includes anthracite, liquid ammonia, and liquefied natural gas, while the downstream covers compound fertilizers, melamine, and wheat/corn cultivation, among other areas. Changes in industrial and agricultural demand will directly affect the price trend of urea in China.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
