September 24th report:
On September 23, 2026, the PVC spot market generally moved within a trading range, with futures edging higher but weak demand on the spot side, resulting in subdued trading activity and a pronounced wait-and-see sentiment. According to analysis based on the mean‑deviation method, current PVC prices are in a volatile phase characterized by a strong rebound and bullish bias, with medium‑to‑long‑term prices remaining in a lower‑to‑mid range. Downside room in the short term is limited, and future price movements will depend on the recovery of downstream demand.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Difference Type | Value as of 2026.09.23 | Value as of 2026.09.22 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | -12.40 | -14.40 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | -37.20 | -63.00 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | -93.50 | -70.20 | - |
2. Signal status judgment
The current combination of sign changes in the equal‑interval differences is (+, +, −), which constitutes a strong rebound (bullish, rebound‑type) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current PVC price trend is oscillating (with a bullish bias), because the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for an oscillating trend. Specifically, the combination is of a strong rebound type, indicating an overall bullish direction.
4. Position Space Reference
PVC’s 60-day price cycle is in the third tier (mid-range), its 3-month price cycle is also in the third tier (mid-range), and its 1-year price cycle is in the second tier (lower-mid range), indicating limited downside potential overall.
5. Spot Market Dynamics
On September 23, 2026, the PVC market in the Linyi region experienced a range‑bound adjustment, with futures edging higher while the spot market remained sluggish. Dealer price quotes changed little, as traders adopted a wait-and-see stance, resulting in lackluster trading activity. The mainstream quotation for calcium carbide‑based SG‑5 grade was in the 4,720–4,770 CNY/ton range. At Shandong Xinfafa, the PVC plant is operating at normal capacity, with ex‑factory prices for calcium carbide‑grade SG‑5 at 4,800 CNY/ton, payable in cash. Meanwhile, Zhongyan Inner Mongolia’s PVC unit is running at full load, quoting 4,530 CNY/ton for calcium carbide‑based SG‑5, payable by accepted bills.
6. Trend chart display
7. Reference for Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain
Upstream: chlorine, dichloroethane, vinyl chloride, calcium carbide, ethylene
Downstream: PVC foam, PVC automotive parts, cables, wires, shoe soles, PVC profiles, toys, PVC pipes, synthetic leather, PVC sheets, PVC films
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
