September 30th News
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system: As of September 30, the average price of top-grade DMF in China was 5,640 CNY/ton. Recently, the Chinese DMF market has shown a pattern of high-level fluctuation, with firm spot quotations and significant regional price differences. The mainstream quotation for top-grade bulk water in East China is 5,050-5,200 CNY/ton, while the ex-factory reference prices in Shandong and North China are 4,900-5,100 CNY/ton. Prices in South China are higher, with a noticeable premium for drum-packed goods. On the supply side, overall industry production remains at a moderate level, with some major plants undergoing periodic maintenance, leading to a tightening of market circulation. Inventory pressure on factories is not significant, and they have a strong intention to maintain prices. Traders are selling according to market conditions, holding back from selling at low prices, and downstream buyers are mostly making small, on-demand purchases, showing a weak willingness to stockpile large quantities. The trading atmosphere is cautious, resulting in a situation where "factory quotations are strong, but spot transactions are limited."
II. Cause Analysis
Cost Perspective: DMF’s primary raw materials—methanol, dimethylamine, and liquid ammonia—provide solid cost support. Recently, the methanol market has been volatile but generally firm, with coal‑to‑methanol costs rising and spot prices remaining at elevated levels. Dimethylamine prices have been fluctuating within a range, while liquid ammonia has edged higher. Integrated production facilities, leveraging the cost advantages of self‑produced feedstocks, enjoy reasonable profit margins, whereas companies relying on externally sourced raw materials face higher production costs, with some units operating right at the break‑even point. Should feedstock prices continue to strengthen, they will further underpin DMF prices; conversely, if methanol and dimethylamine were to retreat, cost‑driven support would weaken, increasing downward pressure on prices. Overall, upstream feedstocks currently provide bottom‑line support for DMF, but there is insufficient momentum for a substantial further surge in costs.
Demand Side: The core downstream applications of DMF are concentrated in areas such as PU wet‑process slurry, synthetic leather, acrylic fiber, pharmaceutical intermediates, and electronic chemicals. In the PU synthetic leather sector, demand from traditional textile and synthetic leather industries remains subdued; orders for end‑use products like footwear and luggage have recovered less than expected, prompting most companies to maintain low‑load production, with procurement driven primarily by rigid demand and limited incremental growth. In the pharmaceutical CDMO and API segments, demand is relatively stable, with steady orders for high‑purity DMF serving as the main support. Meanwhile, in the electronics and new materials sectors, new demand is being released slowly, contributing only marginally to overall DMF consumption. Overall, downstream demand shows a divergent pattern: pharmaceuticals provide essential support, but weak demand in traditional synthetic leather and textile industries lacks the momentum for concentrated restocking, making it difficult to drive a significant price rally—resulting in a generally weak support environment. At the same time, ongoing environmental regulations impose stringent requirements on DMF usage and recycling, further constraining consumption volumes.
Operating Rates: Currently, the overall operating rate in China’s DMF industry remains within the 70%–75% range, reflecting a differentiated pattern: major players are running at high loads, while smaller and medium-sized units operate at lower capacities. Integrated leading enterprises enjoy high feedstock self-sufficiency and stable operations, with load factors generally maintained at 85%–90%. Meanwhile, some companies that rely on externally sourced dimethylamine and liquid ammonia experience fluctuating raw-material costs, prompting them to flexibly adjust production rates and keep output persistently below capacity. Recently, phased maintenance at Hualu Hengsheng’s Jingzhou‑based supporting facilities, coupled with shutdowns due to equipment failures at several small and medium‑sized plants, temporarily depressed the industry’s overall operating rate, leading to a contraction in market supply and keeping factory inventories at low levels. As the maintenance‑affected units gradually resume production according to schedule, operating rates are expected to rebound, which could increase supply pressure going forward. Overall, the current decline in operating rates is one of the key factors underpinning the recent spot‑price support; however, given the considerable elasticity of these rates, once profit margins recover, the pace of resumption will accelerate, thereby limiting further upside in prices.
3. Future Market Forecast
DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market in China is likely to maintain a high-level volatile operation, with range fluctuations being the main trend. Positive factors include: supply contraction due to maintenance at some plants, cost support from upstream methanol and dimethylamine, low factory inventories, and a strong price-holding mentality. Negative factors include: weak demand from traditional downstream industries such as artificial leather and textiles, insufficient terminal orders, downstream resistance to high prices, and a lack of strong willingness to replenish stocks. High-price transactions are difficult to sustain, and there is limited room for significant price increases.
