October 9th News
I. Market Overview
This week, the melamine market in China as a whole showed a trend of "high-level sideways movement and narrow fluctuation." As of October 9th, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6,325.00 CNY/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week (October 2nd), with a change rate of 0.00%.
From the price trend, since October 2nd, the melamine price has remained stable at around 6,325.00 CNY per ton, with no significant fluctuations. This extreme stability reflects a balance of power between the bulls and bears in the current market, with moderate trading activity. Upstream and downstream companies in China are in a state of cautious observation.
II. Technical Analysis: Moving Averages in a Bullish Configuration, Strong Short-Term Support
As can be seen from the chart, the 10-day moving average is clearly above the 20-day moving average, with a positive and continuously expanding gap. According to the core principle, this is in the continuation phase after a "moving average crossover," indicating that the upward momentum still exists and the market trend is in an ascending channel.
Data show that melamine prices have remained at “high levels” across 10‑day, 20‑day, 30‑day, 60‑day, and 90‑day timeframes. This indicates that recent prices have broken above the three‑month trading range and firmly established a temporary peak. However, at the one‑year level, prices still linger in the “mid‑to‑low range,” suggesting that, over the longer term, current levels have yet to reach historical highs and there remains room for further recovery—while also implying potential pressure from long‑term trapped positions above.
III. Cost Side: Urea Prices Edge Lower
As the main upstream raw material for melamine, the price fluctuation of urea directly affects the cost support of melamine in China.
As of October 9, the benchmark price for urea was 1777.50 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the beginning of the month (1780.00 CNY/ton) in China.
The weak consolidation in urea prices has slightly weakened cost‑side support for melamine, but the price decline is minimal—just RMB 2.5 per ton—insufficient to deliver a meaningful blow to melamine’s elevated price levels. At present, the resilience of melamine prices stems more from its own supply‑demand dynamics and the rigid demand from the downstream panel industry than from cost factors alone.
4. Future Market Forecast
Overall, the melamine market in China is currently in a phase of "strong reality, weak expectations" in the short term.
Short-term trend: Given the bullish arrangement of the moving average system and price stability, prices are expected to remain range-bound between 6,300 and 6,350 CNY per ton early next week. As long as the 10-day moving average does not fall below the 20-day moving average—meaning the spread between the two remains positive—the uptrend remains intact.
