October 10th, news
This daily report is compiled based on the latest spot data and average difference analysis framework. As of October 9, 2026, supported by the tension in the geopolitical situation and the rebound in international crude oil prices, the overall diesel quotations from Chinese independent refineries remain stable and slightly strong. However, the average difference indicators show that the current diesel prices are in a weak rebound (bearish) fluctuation pattern, and the prices are already in the high range of the past year, limiting the upside potential. This information is provided for reference to industry participants.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Difference Type | Value on 2026.10.09 | Value on 2026.10.08 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | -67.29 | -170.62 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | -35.07 | -30.05 | - |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 94.40 | 137.98 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, -, -), corresponding to a weak rebound signal (bearish).
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current trend in diesel prices is fluctuating. The reason for this judgment is that the changes in the three average differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. This characteristic belongs to a weak rebound within a fluctuation range, and the short-term trend is bearish.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Diesel prices in China for 60 days, 3 months, and 1 year cycles are all at the 5th level (high position) out of 5 levels, indicating limited room for further increases.
V. Fundamental Analysis Reference
International Markets: On October 8, international crude oil futures closed sharply higher, with the U.S. WTI November contract settling at $91.49 per barrel, up 3.6%, and the Brent December contract settling at $104.28 per barrel, up 4.1%. Current geopolitical tensions are driving global diesel prices higher; U.S. retail gasoline prices have risen by more than 70% year over year, while European diesel prices remain at record highs. France has announced it will release 10 million barrels from its strategic diesel reserves over the next three months, which is expected to lower retail prices by 12–18 euro cents per liter.
Chinese market: On October 9, the price range for diesel from independent refineries in the northeast region was 9,400-9,500 CNY/ton, an increase from the previous day; in the northwest region, the price range for diesel from independent refineries was 9,100-9,200 CNY/ton, remaining stable.
VI. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
