Strong Raw Material Support Combined with Low Processing Fees: PTA Prices Continue to Show a Relatively Strong Trend

December 29th News

Starting from mid-December, PTA prices have continued to strengthen. According to the commodity market analysis system, by the end of December, the PTA spot price in East China was 5045 CNY/ton, an increase of 9.16% compared to December 16th.

The supply-demand pressure for PTA is not significant. Under low processing fees, mainstream factories have already taken proactive measures such as temporary shutdowns for maintenance and load reductions. As a result, PTA plant maintenance activities are concentrated in November and December. As of December 29, the operating rate of PTA plants has remained around 72%, and market supply is expected to continue declining. Currently, PTA inventories are steadily decreasing. Although downstream polyester demand may seasonally weaken or see a slight inventory buildup in January and February, overall inventory pressure remains relatively low, and the fundamentals remain solid.

Crude oil staged a rebound from its recent low, boosting costs. As of December 26, the settlement price for the February contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $56.74 per barrel, while the settlement price for the February contract of Brent crude oil futures was $60.60 per barrel. Currently, the situation between the U.S. and Venezuela remains unstable, but it is not expected to escalate fully in the short term. Moreover, there are expectations of easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will also weaken the geopolitical factors' support for oil prices.

The downstream market lacks momentum to chase higher prices, with polyester experiencing losses and production cuts, and the load decline has accelerated after mid-month. The winter orders for terminal weaving have basically ended, and due to the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival in China, spring orders are generally delayed, mainly consisting of small and scattered orders. Under the bearish expectations, some textile factories may take an early holiday.

Analysts believe that as the textile off-season deepens, the enthusiasm of downstream sectors to chase higher prices is being hindered. However, with strong support from PTA raw materials and low processing fees, it is expected that PTA will continue to maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term.