October 10th, news
As of October 9, 2026, the Chinese PVC spot market has been stable with a slight increase, with many dealers raising their quotes by 20-30 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The current average difference signal indicates a retracement (bullish) oscillation pattern. In the short term, due to the high prices in the 60-day and 3-month cycles, the upward space is limited. Over the long term, the 1-year cycle price is at a medium to low level, leaving some room for further increases. Subsequent attention should be paid to the upstream carbide price fluctuations, the progress of the U.S. PVC price monopoly case, and changes in downstream demand.
I. Data Description
The latest available data is up to October 9, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026-10-09 (CNY/ton) | Value on 2026-10-08 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 25.00 | -52.00 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -5.00 | 12.00 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 95.70 | 87.20 | + |
III. Signal State Determination
The current combination of the three differences compared to the previous day is (+, -, +), which aligns with the retest (bullish) signal in oscillation patterns.
IV. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current PVC price trend is oscillating with a bullish bias, for the following reasons: The changes in the three average differences from the previous day are not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus the overall trend remains in an oscillating range. Combined with the (+, -, +) combination of average differences, the current oscillation is a bullish retracement. Additionally, on October 9th, spot prices for PVC in many regions of China saw a slight increase, leading to an improved market sentiment, and the bullish signals are confirmed by the spot market.
Five, Position and Spatial Reference
Over the past 60 days and on a three-month cycle, prices are in the fifth tier (high range), leaving limited room for short-term price increases.
1 year cycle price is in the 2nd tier (lower-middle), and there is still some room for upward movement in the long term.
VI. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
VII. Industry-Related Developments
Supply side: On October 9, 2026, Shandong Xinfa's PVC plant was operating normally, with the ex-factory price for calcium carbide-based SG-5 increased by 20 yuan to 4,870 CNY/ton (cash), and the company's total capacity is 1.1 million tons; China Salt Inner Mongolia's PVC plant was running at full capacity, with the latest price for calcium carbide method SG-5 at 4,610 CNY/ton (acceptance), and the company's capacity is 400,000 tons.
Market Update: On October 9, the PVC market in Zibo and Linyi regions of China showed a steady upward trend. Dealers' quotes increased by 20-30 CNY/ton compared to October 8. The current mainstream quotation for calcium carbide method 5 type is in the range of 4870-4950 CNY/ton. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with overall transactions being moderate.
International Industry News: A U.S. federal judge recently ruled that most of the claims in the PVC pipe manufacturers’ price‑fixing case may proceed. The plaintiffs allege that several companies engaged in horizontal price‑fixing, and the case will now move into the discovery phase. If found liable, purchasers and other parties could seek treble damages. Further developments in this case could influence global PVC price trends.
Industry M&A Outlook: PMCF’s forecast projects that the global plastics industry’s M&A activity in 2026 will surpass 2025 levels. In 2025, there were a total of 420 M&A deals in the global plastics sector, up 5% year over year—a fourth consecutive year of growth—raising the prospect that industry consolidation could reshape the medium- to long-term supply-and-demand dynamics of PVC.
Supply chain reference: The upstream of PVC is mainly associated with the prices of commodities such as calcium carbide, ethylene, and vinyl chloride. Downstream demand primarily comes from areas such as PVC pipes, profiles, films, and artificial leather. Price and supply-demand changes in both the upstream and downstream sectors can have a transmission effect on the price of PVC.
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
