October 16th, according to reports
This week, the price of propylene, a raw material, remained high, driving up the price of acrylonitrile. As of October 16, the mainstream negotiation price for ex-tank self-pickup in the East China market was 11,400-11,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 250-350 CNY/ton from last week; the mainstream negotiation price for delivery within the Shandong market area was 11,150-11,350 CNY/ton, an increase of 350 CNY/ton from last week.
Supply is ample:
Within the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its operating load to 60%, leading to a decrease in supply. According to statistics, for this week (October 9-15), China's acrylonitrile industry capacity utilization rate was 72.49%, a decrease of 2.81% from the previous period; the weekly production was approximately 86,600 tons, a reduction of 3,300 tons from the previous period. The fundamental changes within the week were limited, with users purchasing according to their needs, and enterprises' inventory levels remained basically stable. As of October 14, the total inventory of acrylonitrile plants in China was around 45,000 tons, which was roughly the same as the previous week.
Moderate demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries in China varied. The capacity utilization rate for ABS was 54.6%, down 0.6% from last week; the capacity utilization rate for acrylic fiber enterprises was 70.38%, unchanged from last week; and the capacity utilization rate for acrylamide was 56.26%, up 0.86% from last week.
Cost increases:
During the week, raw material prices significantly increased, and the cost transmission along the industrial chain was not smooth, leading to heavier losses for acrylonitrile. According to statistics, as of October 15, the mainstream closing price of propylene in Shandong, China, was 10,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 405 CNY/ton from the previous week; the average production cost of acrylonitrile was 13,357 CNY/ton, up 5.18% week-over-week. Meanwhile, the average production profit of acrylonitrile was -2,081 CNY/ton, a decrease of 483 CNY/ton week-over-week.
Outlook: Cost pressures remain persistent, with suppliers continuing to hold firm on prices and spot prices staying resilient. In the short term, there is no expectation of a sharp drop in propylene prices, which will likely keep pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, as production losses deepen, some facilities may resort to output cuts, further supporting acrylonitrile price gains. However, with terminal demand remaining subdued, any price increases are likely to be capped. Market attention should remain focused on supply-side developments.
