Acrylonitrile industry into a new round of capacity release cycle

Zhejiang petrochemical phase ii 260,000 tons of acrylonitrile newly installed in mid-August formal output qualified products. Now the domestic effective total production capacity of acrylonitrile has reached 2.769 million tons/year, which means that the acrylonitrile industry has entered a new cycle of capacity release. There is still a lot of new capacity coming on the market.

By the end of 2021, a total of 780,000 tons of new production capacity will be put into production in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II, As well as Korul Phase II, Lihua Yi, Tianchen Qixiang and Sierbang Phase III. The total effective acrylonitrile capacity is conservatively expected to reach 3.159 million tons/year by the end of 2021, an increase of 26% from 2020.

A total of 1.5 million tons of acrylonitrile capacity will be added in 2021-2022, and China's total effective acrylonitrile capacity will exceed 4 million tons by the end of 2022.

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From 2015 to 2020, the average growth rate of domestic acrylonitrile production capacity was 6.64 percent. The average growth rate of 2020-2022 capacity will reach 26.4%. The growth rate of acrylonitrile production capacity is obviously accelerated, and the industry supply and demand pattern will change greatly in the future.The average growth rate of 2020-2022 capacity will reach 26.4%. The growth rate of acrylonitrile production capacity is obviously accelerated, and the industry supply and demand pattern will change greatly in the future.

In acrylonitrile downstream industry, ABS development is the most robust. Since the second half of 2020, the industry profit has maintained a high level of more than 5,000 CNY/ton. The industry's operating rate has also stayed above 90% most of the time. Meanwhile, ABS production capacity will enter a new growth cycle in 2022-2023. About 4m tonnes of new capacity are expected to be launched. Demand for acrylonitrile will increase by about 900,000 tons.

In addition nitrile latex industry development is also more eye-catching. But capacity is growing too fast. In 2021, China's nitrile latex has been a high-speed period of new expansion. Late momentum may weaken.

As domestic acrylonitrile production capacity increases, exports are also increasing. From January to July 2021, acrylonitrile exports reached 127,200 tons, up 186% year on year. The total export volume from January to July this year has exceeded the total import volume in 2020, with the net export volume reaching 0.84 million tons. Acrylonitrile exports are expected to break through 200,000 tons in 2021.

Acrylonitrile capacity growth in the coming years will continue to be concentrated in China. There is no new capacity plan for the next two years. Therefore, China's acrylonitrile exports will further expand. At present, China's export products are still concentrated in Asia, and will gradually extend to the Middle East and European markets in the future.