Tight supply led to renewed price rises in acrylonitrile markets

On August 24, the settlement price of acrylonitrile sinopec came out, executing 14700 CNY/ton, 150 CNY/ton higher than the settlement price last month, some industry insiders feel slightly higher than the expected level.At the same time, acrylonitrile spot market price rose again, the current mainstream tank price in east China market has reached 15000 CNY/ton and higher level.In addition to the impact of factory settlement, the direct factor is the reduction of supply again. Shanghai Secco and Sierbang have both reduced production due to unexpected factors.

Among them, a 260,000 ton plant of Shanghai SecCO was stopped for maintenance for about a week , with a loss of about 5000-6000 tons.A 130,000-ton plant in Sierbang was also stopped for maintenance on August 13, and another set of plant was affected. It is estimated to last until the end of the month, and the direct loss  also expected to reach about 5,000 tons.Unplanned losses totalling more than 10,000 tonnes tightened the already tight acrylonitrile market, thus driving spot prices higher again.

At present, the average probability of acrylonitrile industry is only about 77%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year. Although the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical plant went into production smoothly, but there is still a device has not been run. Zhejiang petrochemical is estimated to release only about 5000 tons of new capacity this month. Acrylonitrile supplies were down more than 5, 000 tonnes this month compared with expected unplanned losses at Sirborne and Secco.

In addition, acrylonitrile overseas market prices also showed a rising trend. On the one hand, it is influenced by the Chinese market; On the other hand, overall overseas supply is also inadequate. Production is particularly low in Europe. The force majeure of the 285,000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit owned by AnQores of the Netherlands has not been lifted. Meanwhile, Turkey's Petkim's 90,000-ton acrylonitrile unit is still undergoing maintenance.

In addition, the overall downstream demand in September is generally expected to grow, buying began to follow up, there is downstream stocking demand. The arbitrage window still exists, and China's acrylonitrile exports are still substantial, expected to reach about 15,000 tons in August.

For September, bearish expectations may be broken. Production losses in late August could extend into early September. In addition, there is still a 260,000 tons of equipment in Sibang scheduled to be repaired for one month in October, which will also have a certain impact on foreign sales in September. Two-way sandwiching, the overall supply in September or still no surplus, the fundamentals will maintain a tight balance. However, considering the release of new production capacity in October, such as The Second phase of Korul, will still restrain acrylonitrile prices. Both gains and losses are expected to be limited in September.