This analysis is based on the mean difference method framework to assess the spot market conditions of heavy soda ash on October 20, 2026. The current trend of heavy soda ash in China is a bearish oscillation. With the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles all in low ranges, the downward space is limited, and there may be potential for a bottoming and recovery, for reference by relevant industry participants. The latest available data is up to October 20, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Indicator | Value on October 20, 2026 | Value on October 19, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 0.00 | 0.00 | Flat |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -2.14 | -3.29 | Up |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | -5.14 | -4.64 | Down |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current average difference change combination is (unchanged, +, -), which belongs to a rebound (bearish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is range-bound. Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day periods do not consistently follow the same direction as the previous day, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Therefore, it is determined to be a volatile trend, with short-term characteristics of a bearish rebound.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
The current prices of heavy soda ash in China for 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods are all at the 1st level (low position), with extremely limited room for decline, providing a foundation for valuation recovery in the medium to long term.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Industry Updates Reference
The upstream of the soda ash industry chain in China includes industrial salt and raw salt, with the current raw material prices being generally stable, providing stable cost support; the downstream covers a wide range of products such as glass, alumina, baking soda, and cryolite. Currently, there is no significant increase in demand, and the subsequent recovery in demand will be a key factor affecting the trend of soda ash.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
