September 24th report:
Entering September, the PTA market followed a trend of initial gains followed by a pullback. At the start of the month, supported by rising crude oil and PX costs and constrained supply due to earlier plant maintenance, spot prices fluctuated higher. After peaking mid-month, as several units undergoing maintenance resumed operations in quick succession, supply pressures resurged. Meanwhile, downstream demand during the traditionally strong “Golden September” season fell short of expectations, leading to a price correction. Overall, the market remained locked in a range-bound trading pattern.
According to Spotcom data, in early September, PTA spot prices were supported by cost factors and strengthened. In the middle to late part of the month, multiple PTA units from companies such as Hailun Petrochemical and Zhongtai Petrochemical were restarted and increased their load, leading to a continuous rise in the industry's operating rate. As market supply gradually increased, the market shifted from destocking to a small inventory accumulation, and spot prices fell from their peak. As of September 24, the benchmark spot price for PTA in East China was 7,147 CNY/ton, up 11.86% from the beginning of the month.
International crude oil prices initially rose before reversing course. As of September 23, the November WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $92.16 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $95.41 per barrel. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have kept shipping traffic through key straits subdued, and tightening physical supply has provided solid support for oil prices, driving them higher. However, starting in mid‑month, as market sentiment shifted toward easing Middle East tensions and expectations of a recovery in crude supplies gained traction, the earlier panic‑driven trading dynamic was completely reversed. Consequently, both benchmark crude oils posted sharp declines, hitting their lowest levels since September 9, while the broader energy sector weakened across the board.
From the perspective of PTA supply, the maintenance units in September have basically completed their restarts, and China's PTA production has been steadily released. The processing margin remains at a relatively reasonable level, further stimulating the production enthusiasm of enterprises. There is still room for increased supply, which puts pressure on prices.
In addition, demand has become the key factor restraining the market’s upward momentum. The traditional textile “Golden September” peak season has fallen short of expectations, with downstream polyester producers grappling with losses; many plants have implemented production cuts and maintenance shutdowns, keeping overall operating rates around 74%. Textile mills in the Jiangsu–Zhejiang region report limited order intake, with downstream buyers primarily engaging in rigid‑demand procurement and showing little willingness to proactively replenish inventories. With no significant surge in end‑consumer demand, demand-side factors are unable to sustain PTA price gains, and pre‑National Day restocking efforts remain relatively subdued.
Looking ahead, PTA will continue to follow a volatile pattern supported by cost but constrained by supply and demand. Crude oil and PX raw material costs provide support, but with supply continuously recovering and demand falling short of expectations, there is insufficient momentum for a significant upward trend. Without a substantial increase in crude oil prices to stimulate the market, it will be difficult for PTA to see a one-sided rally.
