September 10th, according to reports
[Key Insight] In the short term, ethanol is likely to remain volatile but generally strong. Multiple plant maintenance activities are tightening supply, while manufacturers’ efforts to maintain prices and rising import ethanol prices are providing support. As a result, prices have upward momentum for recovery, and given their current low levels, there’s limited room for further downside.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Indicator | Value as of Sep 9, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of Sep 8, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 0.00 | 0.00 | Unchanged |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 6.50 | 8.55 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 2.69 | 0.39 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current three average differences have not fully aligned in their direction of change, with the medium- to long-term average difference continuing to strengthen, indicating a signal that is biased towards being bullish in a volatile market.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is volatile (slightly bullish).
Reason: The changes in the three differences from the previous day are not completely consistent, failing to meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus it is judged as a fluctuating trend; coupled with multiple ethanol production facilities in China entering maintenance cycles and a contraction in the supply side, the landed duty-paid price of imported ethanol from Brazil has increased by 274 CNY/ton, leading to a strong intention among manufacturers to maintain prices. The short-term trend is relatively strong.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
Ethanol prices for the 60-day and 3-month cycles are both in the 1st tier (low position), while the 1-year cycle is in the 3rd tier (middle position). The overall downward space is limited, providing a foundation for price recovery.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
