October 28th, news
Key Takeaway: Ethanol is trading in a narrow range at elevated levels in the short term, with a mild pullback underway. On the spot market, maintenance shutdowns and essential demand continue to provide support, but expectations of new capacity coming online in the medium to long term are capping upside potential.
1. Average Difference Change Table
The latest available data up to October 27, 2026, with the mean difference calculated as follows:
| Difference Type | Value on 2026-10-27 | Value on 2026-10-26 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 1.78 | 3.56 | - |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 27.44 | 34.05 | - |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 29.06 | 26.36 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The combination of the three differences changing direction from the previous day is (-, -, +), which is a signal of a moderate correction (biased towards bearish, corrective in nature).
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is choppy, for the following reasons:
Average Difference Level: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences do not all change in the same direction as the previous day, which is consistent with the rules for determining a consolidation trend. Currently, it is in a moderately bearish correction phase.
Fundamental level: Multiple plants, including those of Shandong Hengxin and Guangxi COFCO, are undergoing maintenance, leading to a temporary tightness in spot supply. Consequently, many enterprises in China have successively raised ethanol quotations, with robust demand-driven transactions providing support to prices. However, from October to December 2026, several coal-to-ethanol plants are expected to start trial operations, which will likely increase future supply and limit the upside potential for prices.
4. Positional Space Reference
Ethanol prices over 60 days and 3 months are in the 5th tier (high), while the 1-year cycle price is in the 4th tier (moderately high). Overall, the price level is relatively high, with limited room for further increases. However, there is strong underlying demand providing support, so any short-term correction is also expected to be limited.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. It is recommended to rely on real-time data for subsequent actions.
