Maintenance Fails to Counter Large-Scale Supply, PP Prices Fluctuate and Fall in the First Half of November

November 12, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, in the first half of November, the PP market in China fluctuated, with more declines than increases in the prices of various grades of products. As of November 12, the benchmark price for PP fiber was reported at 6556.67 CNY/ton, a change rate of -2.48% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price Trend

Regarding raw materials:

International oil prices experienced significant volatility in this period. The latest round of production increases by OPEC+ has raised market concerns about the risk of long-term supply overhang. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, but weaker U.S. demand has kept international oil prices on a relatively weak footing, leading to sideways trading. On the propylene front, prices initially followed crude oil lower, but recently, bargain-buying activity has picked up as traders replenish their low inventories, helping to clear excess stock from the market and even prompting spot prices to stabilize and rebound. In contrast, propane prices continue to decline, pressured by persistently low global benchmark prices and sluggish consumer demand. Overall, the current pricing dynamics of PP’s key raw materials offer little support for cost stability.

Supply side:

In the first half of November, the overall operating rate of PP enterprises in China showed limited fluctuations. As of the time of writing, the overall operating load level of the industry in China is 79%. The current weekly total production is close to 800,000 tons. During this period, short-term maintenance was carried out on production lines at Ningxia Petrochemical, Guangdong Petrochemical Line 1, and Beihai Petrochemical. Dushanzi Petrochemical Line 1 was shut down. Additionally, there are other planned temporary shutdowns at Guangxi Petrochemical and CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical. However, due to the large supply base in the industry, the supply in the market remains ample, with inventory levels approaching 900,000 tons. Overall, the PP supply side has not shown any improvement in supporting spot prices.

Demand aspect:

In the first half of November, the market continued the downward trend that defied the traditional peak season, as the boost from Double 11 e-commerce sales during this period had only a limited impact on improving trading sentiment. Meanwhile, several positive factors were largely offset by numerous headwinds. At the beginning of the month, the outcome of the U.S.-China talks fell short of market expectations, leaving industry players feeling cautious and uncertain. On top of this, the broader economy remains sluggish, while external markets face challenges due to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts and rising trade protectionism—both of which are weighing down the export prospects of finished goods. As a result, downstream businesses are struggling under tight constraints, leading to weak demand and accumulating inventory. Overall, however, the lackluster demand dynamics make it difficult for the PP spot price to find solid support.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of November, the PP market prices in China fluctuated and declined. From a fundamental perspective, the prices of upstream raw materials fell more often than they rose, providing inadequate support for PP. There was limited improvement in consumption, with industry load slightly increasing at high levels. With a large base of production capacity, the expectation of ample supply remains unchanged, and the market lacks strong guidance. It is expected that the PP market will continue to show a weak adjustment trend.