October 27th, according to news,
Key Takeaways: In the short term, ethanol prices are likely to remain in a relatively strong, choppy range, supported by price hikes from Chinese producers, robust demand, and expectations of rising import costs. Meanwhile, expectations of new capacity coming online in the longer term are capping upside potential.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value on October 26, 2026 | Value on October 25, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 3.56 | 8.11 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 34.05 | 37.89 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 26.36 | 23.67 | + |
2. Signal Status Assessment: Mild pullback (bearish, pullback in nature).
3. Trend direction conclusion: Oscillation.
Reason: The three‑point differences did not all move in the same direction as the previous day, leaving no clear unidirectional trading signal. On the fundamentals front, Chinese ethanol producers have recently raised their quotes across the board, with factories facing little inventory pressure and downstream demand remaining steady. Meanwhile, tighter Indian sugar‑to‑ethanol supply and Argentina’s increase in the gasoline‑ethanol blending ratio have pushed up import cost expectations, while the overseas ethanol market has found support at lower levels, providing a floor for prices. However, several coal‑to‑ethanol plants are set to begin trial runs in the fourth quarter, and expectations of a near‑term supply boost are capping upside potential. Amid this tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market is likely to remain rangebound in the short term.
4. Positional Space Reference: Prices over the 60-day and 3-month cycles are both in the 5th decile (high range), while the 1-year cycle price is in the 4th decile (upper-middle range), suggesting that short-term upside potential is relatively limited.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
