October 30th, according to news from China,
Core Insights: This daily report is based on the latest urea spot price data as of October 29, 2026. Using the mean difference method, it is determined that the current urea price is in a clear upward trend, with the spot price in the mid-to-low range. External policy disruptions have subsided, and the overall supply and demand situation is stable, providing a reference for industry participants in China.
I. Data Description
The latest available urea price data in China is up to October 29, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Statistics on Changes in Finite Differences
| Average Difference Indicator | (2026.10.29) | (2026.10.28) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 5.00 | 1.00 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -2.00 | -2.50 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | -2.25 | -4.13 | + |
III. Market Signal Analysis
The current 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages have all changed direction consistently from the previous day, all showing an upward trend, which is a clear signal of rising prices.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend of urea is clearly increasing, with the judgment based on the fact that the changes in all three averages compared to the previous day are positive, showing a highly consistent direction, and there is sufficient momentum for a short-term price increase.
V. Positional Space Reference
Urea prices in 60-day and 3-month cycles are in the 2nd tier (lower-middle) out of 5 tiers, while the 1-year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (middle). The overall downward space is limited, and there is some room for upward movement.
VI. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
VII. Recent Fundamental Developments
Chinese manufacturers' quotations are stable: From October 26 to 27, the latest ex-factory quotation for medium-sized urea from Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. remained at 1,705 CNY per ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.
Easing of External Policy Uncertainty: On October 28, 2026, South Korea’s Ministry of Finance announced that, with inventories and supplies stabilizing, the previous ban on hoarding urea and urea solution has been lifted, thereby reducing export‑side uncertainty.
VIII. Risk Disclosure
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
