October 29th, according to reports
In October, the propylene oxide market followed a trend of initial gains followed by volatile fluctuations. Prices opened at 10,800 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month, surged rapidly in the first half, then traded at elevated levels with pullbacks in the middle of the month, before climbing again toward the end and easing slightly at month’s close. Overall, the price center of gravity shifted noticeably higher compared to the start of the month. According to the monitoring system, as of October 10, the benchmark price for propylene oxide stood at 11,400 CNY per ton, up 5.56% from the beginning of the month.
Raw Material Side: Propylene prices have hit a nearly 12-year high, while liquid chlorine has risen in tandem, with rigid cost pressures continuing to underpin the market. However, price pass‑through remains delayed, leaving both the chlorohydrin process and the HPPO process mired in losses. The strength on the cost side has failed to translate into improved margins at the production level; instead, it has squeezed propylene oxide’s already limited room for price concessions, effectively locking the price floor in place. According to monitoring data, as of October 29, the benchmark price for propylene stood at RMB 10,927.67 per tonne, up 12.57% from the beginning of the month (RMB 9,707.67 per tonne).
Supply side: In October, China's propylene oxide production was approximately 589,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.05%. Although plant maintenance was frequent during the month, it mainly consisted of short stops in the middle and late part of the month, resulting in limited actual reduction. In November, the maintenance intensity increased, with major plants such as Wanhua, Binhua Dongrui, and Zhejiang Petrochemical shutting down. The maintenance period for Zhejiang Petrochemical is longer. Overall, China's propylene oxide production in November is expected to decrease to 568,200 tons, a 5.58% reduction from October. The supply side shifts from "frequent short stops and offsetting reductions" in October to "concentrated shutdowns of major plants" in November, significantly increasing the certainty of a reduction in spot commodity volumes.
Demand side: Downstream polyether and propylene glycol continue to show limited acceptance of propylene oxide priced above RMB 11,000 per ton, with purchases largely confined to small, essential orders and little appetite for higher prices. End-of-month restocking has brought a temporary rebound in trading activity, but this is unlikely to translate into a sustained upward trend. In November, demand also exhibits structural divergence; overall demand volume is contracting in tandem with supply, resulting in a relatively mild supply–demand imbalance, and leaving the demand side unable to generate an independent upward impetus for propylene oxide.
Comprehensive forecast: Overall, the strong support from cost and supply contraction limits the risk of a significant drop. However, high prices suppress downstream purchasing, and as the terminal market gradually enters the off-season, there is limited upward potential. It is expected that in November, propylene oxide will mainly fluctuate at high levels, with a reference range of 11,000 to 12,000 CNY per ton. More attention should be paid to the pace of facility restarts and changes in downstream inventory intentions.
