This daily report is based on the latest heavy soda ash spot data as of October 29, 2026, and uses a mean difference method for quantitative analysis combined with price position dimensions to assess market conditions: Currently, heavy soda ash is showing a generally volatile but bullish trend, with prices at a low point in the 1-year cycle, leaving limited room for further decline. Subsequent attention should be paid to the recovery of demand, for reference by industry participants in China.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Type of Average Difference | Value on October 29, 2026 | Value on October 28, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day average difference (D5) | -1.14 | 0.00 | - |
| 10-day average difference (D10) | -0.43 | -0.43 | Flat |
| 20-day average difference (D20) | -2.29 | -2.71 | Upward |
II. Signal State Determination
The current combination of changes in the three differences is close to (－, ＋, ＋), corresponding to a signal of strong consolidation (bullish).
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is volatile (with a bullish bias). The rationale for this judgment is that the directions of the three mean differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear unilateral rise or fall. The 20-day mean difference has rebounded from a lower value, and given that the price is at a historically low level, there is a strong expectation for subsequent valuation recovery. Overall, the trend is volatile with a bullish bias.
IV. Positional Space Reference
60-day cycle, 3-month cycle, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the 1st tier (low position), with very limited room for decline, providing a strong foundation for valuation recovery.
V. Heavy Soda Ash 1-Year Price Trend Chart
VI. Industry Chain Updates
1. Upstream sector: The upstream raw materials for heavy soda ash are industrial salt and crude salt. Recently, the prices of industrial salt and crude salt have been stable, providing steady support to the cost end of soda ash. 2. Downstream sector: The main downstream areas for heavy soda ash in China cover glass, baking soda, water glass, and aluminum oxide, among others. Currently, the operating rate of the float glass industry is maintained at a high level, providing strong support for the demand for heavy soda ash. The demand in other downstream sectors is mainly based on procurement as needed, with no significant negative signals at present.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. The most recent available data is up to October 29, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
