October 30th, according to news,
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda price in China showed an overall downward trend this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 635 CNY/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 594 CNY/ton, a decrease of 6.43%, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.12% compared to last year. On October 29, the chlor-alkali index was 727 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.84% from the highest point of 2128 points (October 24, 2021), and up 2.83% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27, 2026. (Note: The period refers to December 1, 2011, to present.)
2. Market Analysis
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices have generally declined this month. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion membrane caustic soda is around 520-600 CNY/ton. In Zhejiang, the caustic soda prices are stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan around 800-830 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices are consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) around 1800-1900 CNY/ton. The regional liquid caustic soda market in China has been continuously declining, with no positive support. Next week, there is an expectation of increased load in the chlor-alkali industry in Shandong. With some chlor-alkali plants restarting and others undergoing maintenance, the estimated load next week will be around 82.5%. As the downstream industries face increasing losses, some aluminum plants are moderately restocking based on their inventory levels, while alumina plants are not very active in spot trading and are being cautious with their quotes. Currently, the spot prices in China are generally slightly declining, with the national average price falling below the 2700 yuan threshold, and market transactions are sluggish. Non-aluminum downstream demand remains weak, with most purchases made on a need basis, and there are no signs of improvement, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts note that, in the near term, caustic soda prices are trending weakly, with downstream alumina buyers adopting a cautious stance. This has intensified short‑long positioning, while market sentiment remains increasingly cautious. Alumina prices continue to edge lower, with limited upside expected, whereas liquid caustic soda prices may have little further room to fall. Overall, caustic soda is likely to trade in a range‑bound pattern, with the outlook largely contingent on downstream demand.
