November 3rd, according to reports
I. Market Price Trend Analysis
According to the monitoring data, this week, the Chinese acrylic acid market showed a continuous fluctuating upward trend, with a significant increase in the price level, reaching a recent high at the beginning of the week.
Price performance: On November 2, the benchmark price of acrylic acid reached RMB 9,500.00 per tonne, up 1.42% on the day. Compared with the start of the week (October 27) at RMB 8,983.33 per tonne, prices have risen by approximately RMB 516.67 per tonne over the past week, a gain of nearly 5.75%. Even after a brief period of sideways trading on November 1 (change rate 0.00%), the market has maintained strong upward momentum.
Technical Pattern: The current price shows a very standard bullish formation. The moving average price line is firmly above the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, and all the moving averages are in an upward divergent arrangement. Particularly, the 5-day moving average (red line) has a steep slope, indicating strong short-term upward momentum.
Position Assessment: According to the table data, acrylic acid prices are marked as “high” across the 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day horizons, while the one-year horizon is marked as “mid‑range.” This indicates that current prices have broken above the resistance range of the past three months, reaching a temporary peak amid elevated market sentiment.
II. Upstream and Downstream Dynamics of the Industry Chain
Upstream raw materials: Propylene prices surged before retreating, and cost support has marginally weakened.
Propylene Trend: As the main raw material for acrylic acid, propylene showed a contrast to acrylic acid this week. On November 3, the benchmark price of propylene was 11,797.67 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the beginning of the month in China (12,001.00 CNY/ton).
Impact Analysis: After a sharp rise at the beginning of the month, propylene prices have since retreated, indicating that cost pressures on acrylic acid producers have eased to some extent. Normally, falling feedstock prices would weigh on finished‑product prices; however, this week acrylic acid prices rose rather than fell, suggesting that improvements in market supply and demand fundamentals or the release of downstream demand played the dominant role, rather than cost factors alone. This “scissors spread” trend is conducive to restoring production margins at acrylic acid plants.
Three, Outlook and Strategy Recommendations
The current acrylic acid market in China is in a strong upward trend, with the moving average system showing a perfect bullish arrangement, and it has just broken through the 9500 yuan level. The possibility of a short-term momentum-driven rise is relatively high.
Risk Warning: Although short-term momentum is strong, the following risks should be closely monitored:
1. High-level correction risk: All short-term indicators are at "high levels," and if downstream acceptance of high-priced goods decreases, there may be a consolidation due to profit-taking.
2. Raw material drag: The continuous decline in propylene prices may subsequently be transmitted to the acrylic acid market, limiting its upside potential.
Trading recommendations:
Holders: The current trend is positive, and it can be held, but close attention should be paid to the changes in trading volume. If a signal of increasing volume but stagnant price appears, consider reducing positions at higher prices.
Downstream users: Given that prices are already near three-month highs and continue to rise, we recommend maintaining rigid demand procurement and avoiding blindly chasing higher prices. Consider waiting for prices to pull back to around the 5-day moving average before replenishing inventories.
