October 30th News
Entering October, the Chinese MIBK market continued the high-level fluctuation pattern following the surge in September. The overall market trend was initially stable, then saw a small correction, and rebounded at the end of the month, with prices operating within the high range for the year. From the monitored price trends, at the beginning of the month, the market carried over the strong performance from September, with spot prices maintaining a high level around 13,500 CNY/ton. In the middle of the month, the pace of downstream on-demand purchases slowed down, leading to weak follow-up in market transactions and a slight decline in prices. In the latter part of the month, after touching a low point, the market rebounded due to tight supply, resulting in a wide fluctuation throughout the month. This pattern was clearly different from the one-sided upward trend seen in August and September.
The supply side is the core factor supporting the MIBK price floor this month. The previous market surge was mainly due to major plant maintenance and a decline in production load in China, leading to a tightening of spot supply. This tight supply situation continued into early October. However, as some maintenance facilities gradually resumed production, there was an increase in market supply, with more spot goods available to traders. Additionally, at the high prices, factories were more willing to sell, which put pressure on the market in the middle of the month. Overall, the industry's operating rate in October increased compared to September, but there was no significant concentrated release of supply. Spot inventory levels remained moderate, without forming a noticeable inventory backlog, thus limiting the downward pressure on prices.
On the cost side, fluctuations and adjustments in the acetone market—the primary raw material—have provided cost support for MIBK, though the upward momentum has weakened. Acetone is MIBK’s most critical feedstock; its price rally in September was a key driver behind MIBK’s sharp gains. However, in October, the acetone market has been characterized by mixed bullish and bearish factors, with prices alternating between rises and falls, leaving the cost base without sustained upward pressure and making it difficult to propel MIBK to another significant surge.
Demand has remained relatively weak, serving as the primary drag on price gains. MIBK is primarily used in coatings, rubber antioxidants, pharmaceutical extraction, and other applications. In October, the traditional downstream coatings industry entered its seasonal lull, with limited improvements in end‑user production starts. Downstream firms have shown clear reluctance toward higher‑priced raw materials, largely opting for just‑in‑time procurement and small, incremental restocking, with few large‑scale inventory builds. Market sentiment remains cautious; while essential‑demand support holds, the absence of speculative buying has made it difficult to sustain upward price momentum.
Looking ahead, the Chinese MIBK market is likely to maintain a high-level volatile operation in the short term. The positive factors include the continued uncertainty of some facilities' operations, making it unlikely for a large release of spot supply, and the expectation of stabilization in the cost of acetone, which will support the price bottom. The negative factors are the difficulty in significantly improving downstream demand, with high prices suppressing purchases, and the continuous release of new supplies, creating pressure on the upside. It is expected that the mainstream price of MIBK in November will consolidate within a range, with a low probability of significant increases or deep declines. Market trends will closely follow changes in the raw material acetone as well as order follow-up in the downstream coatings and chemical additives industries. It is suggested that industry players closely monitor facility dynamics, raw material prices, and terminal demand changes, and rationally control their purchasing and selling pace.
