October 30th, according to reports
From the perspective of Shandong asphalt spot trends, the October market followed a typical pattern of first declining and then rising. After an initial drop from high levels and a rebound in the latter part of the month, the market entered a phase of high-level competition following a significant increase in September. Supply and demand, costs, and seasonal demand collectively influenced this round of price fluctuation.
In early October, asphalt prices were under pressure and declined, primarily due to the peak construction season coming to an end and weakening terminal demand. As October began, temperatures in northern China gradually dropped, narrowing the window for road paving. Infrastructure and highway projects that had been rushed in the earlier period were gradually wrapping up. Additionally, after prices continuously rose in September, the high prices suppressed the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase. Traders generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, focusing on depleting their own inventories and showing little interest in restocking. This led to a slowdown in market transactions, with spot asphalt prices in Shandong falling continuously from their peak, resulting in a wave of price corrections. At the same time, some refineries, which had previously seen decent profits, slightly increased their supply, leading to a marginal easing of supply, which further contributed to the price decline. The market sentiment became more cautious.
Meanwhile, in late October, the market bottomed out and rebounded, with a shift in the underlying support dynamics. First, persistently low overall inventory levels provided the strongest underpinning: refineries continued to curb production and carried out intermittent maintenance, keeping both plant‑level and social inventories in Shandong at subdued levels. With no clear oversupply of supply, downside room for price declines was constrained. As prices corrected back into a relatively reasonable range, some traders began building up positions on dips, proactively positioning themselves for winter storage, which generated a temporary surge in purchasing demand and helped revive trading activity. Second, international crude oil prices remained volatile at elevated levels, sustaining cost‑side support; geopolitical factors kept oil prices subject to upward swings, while asphalt feedstock costs stayed firm. Refineries showed little willingness to sell at low prices, resulting in resilient pricing. In addition, market expectations for forthcoming infrastructure‑related policies have warmed, bolstering bullish sentiment and pushing prices back onto an upward trajectory.
Looking ahead, the asphalt market will enter a seasonal off-season, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, limiting the potential for a significant one-sided price increase. It is likely to maintain a high and wide-ranging volatile pattern. On the bearish side, temperatures in northern China are continuously dropping, leading to a gradual halt in outdoor road construction, which will further shrink demand. In November, several refineries in Shandong plan to resume or increase production, raising expectations for higher asphalt output. This will gradually release supply pressure, suppressing price increases. On the bullish side, the low inventory situation is unlikely to change quickly, and winter stockpiling will continue, with traders' phased purchases providing ongoing support for spot prices. Additionally, the cost support from crude oil remains, limiting the potential for a deep price drop.
Downstream construction firms are primarily procuring on an as‑needed basis, so large‑scale stockpiling is not advisable. Traders engaging in winter storage should manage their timing carefully, deploying positions in stages during pullbacks and remaining vigilant about the supply shock that could result from a concentrated resumption of refinery operations. Overall, the asphalt market has shifted from a previous one‑sided rally to a phase of volatile, choppy trading, with significantly heightened price volatility. Key factors to monitor include refinery utilization rates, crude oil price trends, and the pace at which winter storage initiatives are implemented.
