November 9 report
[Key Takeaway] Methanol is currently in a weak rebound, exhibiting a bearish, choppy trend. With supply and demand forces evenly matched, there is no clear directional catalyst for now. Low inventories and cost support provide some floor, while weakening demand caps upside potential.
The most recent available data is up to November 8, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value on November 8, 2026 | Value on November 7, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -9.33 | -40.33 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -77.50 | -65.84 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -75.09 | -66.08 | - |
2. Signal Status Determination
When the three consecutive divided difference changes form the combination (+, -, -), it constitutes a Weak Rebound (bearish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is choppy (bearish). Reason: The direction of change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages is not entirely consistent with the previous day, failing to meet the criteria for a clear uptrend or downtrend. On the fundamentals side, weak demand—evidenced by multiple units at MTO facilities idling or reducing output and inventory accumulation at ports—weighs on prices from above. Meanwhile, concentrated maintenance at mainland plants, low inventories, and coal price cost support cap prices from below. Amid this tug-of-war between bulls and bears, there is no clear unidirectional trend, resulting in an overall choppy, bearish market.
4. Position and Spatial Reference
Methanol prices are in the 1st tier (low position) of the 60-day cycle, with limited room for decline; in the 3rd tier (middle position) of the 3-month cycle; and in the 4th tier (middle-high position) of the 1-year cycle. Short-term upside potential is constrained by expectations of weakening demand in China.
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
