The price of isopropyl alcohol in Europe is stirring again

In 2021, the overseas price of Isopropyl Alcohol is relatively stable, which has a great contrast with last year.  In September, Isopropyl Alcohol prices in Europe saw the biggest jump of the year, jumping $110- $130.  ECHEMI will interpret the forecast of isopropyl alcohol supply flow in Asia after the resurgence of international isopropyl alcohol.

Analysis of international market trends

European isopropyl alcohol prices in 2020 and 2021 are clearly different from each other. 2020 European isopropyl alcohol price volatility is very large, and 2021 European price trend slightly stable. The following is a specific interpretation of why the trend in 2020 is huge, and why the trend in 2021 is so stable.

In fact, the trend of isopropyl alcohol in the world has been affected by the epidemic in the past two years. Before the outbreak, the vast majority of isopropyl alcohol plants in Europe and the United States were shut down around 2018. The reason is that the main demand countries were originally in Asia, led by China. But as China continued to expand production, the plant had overcapacity in 2017 and no longer relied on large quantities of imported isopropyl alcohol.

Secondly, in the case of sufficient capacity, the risk of ocean-going trade increases.  The cycle is too long, reaching about 50 days.  Most of the companies that stuck to ocean trading made a loss for the year.  Therefore, in 2019, Chinese traders still insist on doing ocean-going trade very little.  The European and American factories without The Chinese market can hardly compete with China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore for the South Asian market, so most of the European and American plants are in a state of shutdown.

So after March 2020, as COVID-19 began to spread across Europe, protective supplies became scarce.  Isopropanol as the main raw material of disinfectant, the supply gap is infinite amplification, the price of Isopropanol in Europe is also rising rapidly.  However, with the adjustment of 3 months, the European and American isopropyl alcohol plant resumed work one after another.  And isobutanol stockpiling rich, the international isopropanol price also returned to rational price, and did not appear in the skyrocketing situation.

In 2021, there has never been a shortage of isopropyl alcohol, so the price slowly downward.  In addition to the international resumption of isopropyl alcohol is relatively ideal, ethanol is also widely permitted in disinfectants.  

A stable European market is constrained by many factors

2021 continues the downward trend of last year, from $1,650 / ton to below $1,200 / ton in January-July. There are three main reasons influencing the trend of this period.

The first is regulation of the price of isopropyl alcohol in Europe and America.  The government has largely controlled the spot price of isopropyl alcohol as it is a raw material for quarantine supplies.  And as the supply of isopropyl alcohol is met in the market, the price of isopropyl alcohol is difficult to support.  Second, the price of Isopropyl alcohol in Asia is relatively low, and the long-term price of 800-950 USD/ton also greatly restricts the price of isopropyl alcohol in Europe.  Third, ethanol in Europe and the United States to a certain extent to replace the market of isopropyl alcohol, but also reduce the demand for isopropyl alcohol.

From the end of August to the beginning of September, the international price of isopropyl alcohol rose rapidly due to the impact of hurricanes in the United States.  Overseas units are forced to reduce production, and some Asian countries (such as Singapore, South Korea) will export to Europe and the United States, which is bound to change the supply flow of Isopropanol in Asia in the short term.  As a result, isopropyl alcohol imported to China in September will be delayed, and South Asia's purchase from China will also increase.  Therefore, export orders are expected to increase from the second half of September to the first half of October, and the current operating rate is expected to be a gap.