Polyester Bottle Flakes Remain Highly Volatile This Week; Weekly Average Price Rises Compared to Previous Week

April 24th, News

I. Price Trends This Week (Apr 20–Apr 24)

• Spot (East China bottle grade): At the beginning of the week, prices were 8,700–8,800 CNY/ton, strengthened to 8,850–9,000 CNY/ton in the middle of the week, and slightly dropped to 8,750–8,850 CNY/ton by the end of the week. The weekly average price increased by about 2% compared to the previous week.

• Futures (Bottle Chip Main Contract PR):

◦4/21：8176；4/22：8232；4/23：8368；4/24 11:29：8286(-1.29%)。

◦ Overall, the trend is “rising first, then correcting,” with a price range of 8,092–8,448 CNY/ton.

II. Core Market Drivers

1 Cost side (strong support)

• Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, keeping Brent crude oil prices stuck in a high-range fluctuation between $110 and $120 per barrel, thereby pushing up PX costs.

•PTA: Multiple plants in China (including Hengli, Yisheng, etc.) are undergoing maintenance, leading to a tighter supply. PTA prices increased by about 3% weekly, and the cost rigidity of bottle-grade chips has strengthened.

2 Supply side (tight)

• The bottle chip operating rate is about 75%, with some major factories under maintenance. Spot supply is tight, and manufacturers in China have a strong intention to maintain prices.

• Social inventory is low, and traders are holding back from selling, leading to firm spot quotations in China.

3 Demand Side (Weak Recovery)

•Beverage and packaging demand remains stable, but downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, with mostly small orders for immediate needs and large orders being approached cautiously.

• As May Day approaches, terminal inventory restocking in China is moderate, with no concentrated replenishment, limiting the upside potential.

III. Technical Analysis

According to the commodity market analysis system, the future trend of PET can be analyzed from two dimensions:

1. When the 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average, the probability of a price increase is higher. Conversely, the probability is lower. In the past half month, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages of PET in China have repeatedly shown a state of intertwining up and down, indicating that the trend is in a consolidation phase.

The short-term (10-day) and medium-term (20-day) moving averages of PET are “entangled,” indicating a volatile trend.

2. current location

Currently, the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day positions of PET are all at high levels, and the sum of the position scores for the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day cycles is less than 9 points.

Price Summary

• Oscillating with a bias towards strength, followed by a pullback after the increase: Costs and tight domestic spot supply support prices, but weak demand hinders price increases, leading to slower trading at high levels.

• Futures and spot markets in tandem: Futures prices first rise and then fall, while spot prices follow the upward trend but with a smaller decline; the basis slightly strengthens.

IV. Short-Term Outlook (Apr 25–Apr 30)

•Interval Forecast: Spot price in the short term (1–2 weeks): Primarily characterized by high-level fluctuations, ranging from 8,500 to 9,000 CNY/ton. It will be difficult for prices to fall sharply unless costs collapse; conversely, it will be challenging for prices to rise significantly unless demand strengthens.

• Key variables:

◦ Costs: Fluctuations in crude oil and PTA prices;

◦ Supply: The pace of restarting maintenance facilities;

◦ Demand: Intensity of stock preparation before the May Day holiday.