This Week's PVC Market in China: Bottoming Out with Low-level Fluctuations, Intensifying Supply and Demand Competition

April 24th News

This week (April 21-24), the Chinese PVC market showed a range-bound trend, with prices fluctuating narrowly around the 5,000 CNY/ton mark. The cost side provided bottom support, and the supply side saw a decrease in operating rates due to spring maintenance. However, demand from the real estate sector was weak, and exports declined, coupled with high social inventory levels, which exerted multiple pressures. The intensifying supply-demand tug-of-war led to a volatile market.

I. Price Trends: PVC spot prices show “low-price restocking, high-price wait-and-see” behavior, with generally moderate trading activity.

This week, the PVC futures market in China was mainly characterized by range-bound fluctuations. The spot market followed the trend of the futures, with no significant breakthrough in prices. According to the commodity analysis system, in the East China region, the price of PVC (calcium carbide method) SG-5 decreased slightly by 0.32% this week, with mainstream quotations ranging from 4950 to 5050 CNY per ton. The regional price difference narrowed, and transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand, with small orders predominating. The market sentiment was notably characterized by "restocking at low prices and waiting at high prices."

II. Core Drivers: Cost Floor, Supply Contraction, Weak Demand, High Inventories

Supply Side: Spring Inspections Concentrated, Industry Operating Rates Decline

This week, the PVC industry in China has seen an increase in maintenance efforts, with a significant decrease in operating rates. Data shows that the industry's operating rate has dropped below 80%, with plants such as Yili in Inner Mongolia and Zhenyang in Ningbo joining the maintenance schedule. Meanwhile, maintenance for Bohai Chemical in Tianjin and Zhongtai Chemical has been postponed, leading to a slight easing of overall supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials, calcium carbide prices remain at low levels. According to the commodity analysis system, the mainstream quotation in Northwest China fell by 2.6% this week. This round of declining battery prices has put some downward pressure on PVC spot prices. Meanwhile, ethylene-based PVC production continues to face low operating rates due to high ethylene prices, further reducing supply in this segment.

Demand Side: Downstream remains weak, and weakening exports are weighing it down.

Weak demand remains the core factor restraining the rebound in PVC prices, with overall downstream operating rates remaining low. This week, downstream product manufacturers’ operating rates stood at only 50%, a nearly 10-percentage-point drop from the previous week, keeping the industry in a low-level operating mode. In particular, industries closely tied to the real estate sector have been significantly affected: from January to March 2026, real estate investment and newly started construction areas continued to decline year-on-year, with only completion figures showing a slight recovery. Orders for core products such as pipes and profiles have been slow to recover, and companies are mostly focusing on small orders driven by rigid demand procurement.

On the export front: Starting April 1, the export tax rebate for PVC has been officially canceled, leading to higher export costs and reduced competitiveness. As a result, export orders have weakened month-on-month, declining from earlier levels. The dual pressure from both domestic and international demand makes it difficult for PVC to move into a positive market trend. On the inventory side: Social inventories remain high but are gradually declining at a slow pace, with a relatively long destocking cycle.

On the inventory front: Although PVC social inventories declined slightly week-on-week this week, they remain at historically relatively high levels. The pace of inventory depletion remains slow, continuously weighing on price rebounds. Against the backdrop of high inventories, traders are eager to offload their stocks, and price cuts and promotional activities are widespread, further limiting the room for spot prices to rise.

III. Outlook for the Future Market: Short-term Low-Range Fluctuations; Medium-term Prospects Point to Improved Supply and Demand.

PVC analysts believe that, in the short term, the PVC market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, making it difficult to establish a unidirectional trend amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors. Supporting factors include ongoing spring maintenance activities, which are tightening supply; restraining factors include high social inventories weighing down any rebound, weak demand in the real estate sector that remains challenging to improve, and continued weakening of orders following the cancellation of export tax rebates. It is expected that prices will remain within a fluctuating range of 5,000–5,100 CNY per ton this month. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the pace of improvement in supply and demand: first, the intensity of spring maintenance—should the scope of maintenance expand or its duration lengthen, the resulting contraction in supply will provide support for prices; second, the pace of recovery in downstream demand.

4. Spot Market Trend Forecast

From the SpotCom price curve, it can be seen that currently, the 20-day moving average is still above the 10-day moving average, indicating that there is still some pressure from above. However, there are signs that the 10-day moving average is converging towards the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the market still has some upward momentum. It is expected that in the short term, the market will mainly be characterized by intense competition.

Through auxiliary indicators, it can be seen that recent indicators are mostly high, but medium to long-term indicators are mostly low or medium-low, indicating that there is pressure on the upside in the recent PVC market in China. However, the medium to long-term market still has the momentum to challenge an upward trend.