Why sell coal char cheaply when the inflection point is approaching

Recently, coke prices have been falling continuously, and coke and upstream coking coal seem to be a little restless.

There is a saying in the workshop that coke price should fall again and coking coal price should also fall. The sentence sounds reasonable, but a detailed analysis is a wrong point of view. So I'll correct it first. You may not forget that an iron and steel group once said that about 70% of the net profit of domestic iron and steel industry was taken away by upstream enterprises because of the soaring price of iron ore, and Chinese iron and steel enterprises need to pay about 20 billion to 30 billion yuan more in import cost.

You may not forget that a steel group had no choice: on the one hand, raw materials soared, on the other hand, product prices plunged by 30%. This year's iron and steel enterprise's life is worse. Steel price drops but ore is soaring!

So it is not necessary for coke price to fall upstream and coking coal to fall upstream when coke price falls. Steel enterprises should abandon the illusion of continuously suppressing coke enterprises, and coke enterprises should abandon the illusion of suppressing coal enterprises, because this coal is not the other coal, this is not the time. In the new stage of industrial chain game, the price stabilizer of coking coal-formed coke steel

The consumption of coking refined coal in China is about 600 million tons, of which 60 million tons are imported and 540 million tons are produced by itself. The output of China's top 10 coking coal enterprises is about 180 million tons, and Shanxi Province (others) is about 120 million tons, which accounts for about 300 million tons, accounting for 56%. Its coking coal supply control is not the same as before. The price of coking coal has stabilized for several years in the reasonable green range accepted by both upstream and downstream areas due to the signing of medium and long-term contracts. Even if the steel price has a profit of more than 1,000 yuan and the coke price has a profit of more than 700 yuan, the coking coal price remains stable in the green range. It can be seen that the execution of medium and long-term contracts of coal and steel is not the same as before.

So coking coal has become the stabilizer of coal-coke steel industry chain. No node will actively break the cost support of coking coal in the industrial chain, whether coal, coke or steel.

So Jiao enterprises should abandon the illusion of crushing coal enterprises, because crushing coal prices is not necessarily harmful to people, but certainly not to themselves. One is that the current coke enterprises can not keep the mainstream coal prices down, and the other is that the coke enterprises will not easily destroy the price cost system formed in recent years. This is because of the particularity of the coke industry, the number of independent coking accounts for 80% of all coke enterprises, and the output is close to 80%. Steel enterprises often adjust the supply and demand of coke with 20% combined coking, which affects the price of coke. Therefore, independent coke enterprises, especially those in Shanxi Province, should actively cooperate with coal enterprises to cope with the pressure of steel enterprises.

The demand of downstream is released effectively, the inflection point of coal char volume and price is approaching, and we must not sell cheap. After the implementation of the new tax point in April, the domestic steel price does not fall but rises again, and the demand performance is strong. The main reason is that the central bank releases the signal of monetary policy easing at the macro level, and the market confidence gradually increases; based on the sustained capacity of infrastructure construction, inventory. Horizontal rapid downward trend, price support is not reduced. On spot coke, the inflection point of demand and price is coming. In April, some Limited-production blast furnaces resumed production, and the start-up rate of blast furnaces in the whole country increased slightly. As of April 4, the weekly output of threads increased by 57.2 million tons annually, and the social stock of threads was 8.182 million tons, which was 548.8 million tons less than last week. The stock of steel mills was 2.2794 million tons and fell by 18.61 million tons. The quantity of coal char purchasing has been improved to a certain extent. In addition, the profit of coke enterprises is close to the margin of profit and loss, and they have strong resistance to price reduction. Considering the stable profit of current steel enterprises, the contradiction between supply and demand of coke steel is expected to be alleviated. Coke prices are expected to stop falling and recover after mid-April. In the field of coke futures, inflection point has appeared. According to our technical analysis, J1905 has stabilized, maintaining the first target of 2200 yuan and the second target of 2350 yuan. In conclusion, the inflection point of coal char quantity and price will come, so we should not sell it cheaply. We will not develop ourselves at the expense of upstream and downstream profits, but we should not give up our reasonable profits. In the future, we should reasonably control the supply of coal char, because it affects the strength and profit distribution of different links in the industrial chain.

In recent years, with the fluctuation of the market, the coal enterprises have proved to the steel coke industry that they will never develop themselves at the expense of the profits of the steel coke, nor will they give up their reasonable profits. I sincerely hope that the steel coke industry will never develop itself at the expense of upstream and downstream profits, but also do not give up its reasonable profits. Because coal-coke steel is also a community of destiny.