June 23rd, news:
According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, the lithium carbonate market has experienced significant fluctuations. As of June 23, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 157,000 CNY per ton, a 21% decrease from the annual high of 199,000 CNY per ton on May 12 in China.
Supply Side: Multiple Pressure Variables Suppress the Market
The Jianxiawo lithium mining project has recently seen a key change in land-use approval, significantly disrupting expectations for China’s supply of lepidolite raw materials. This mine boasts one of the world’s largest single lepidolite deposits, and upon reaching full production capacity, it could yield over 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually. Affected by the expiration of its original mining license in August 2025, the mine has simultaneously halted operations; to date, the shutdown has lasted more than 10 months, creating a monthly supply gap of nearly 10,000 tons in lithium salts equivalent across the industry. The pace of the mine’s resumption of production remains a critical variable closely monitored throughout the lithium industry chain.
The Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources officially issued the "Pre-approval and Site Selection Opinion for Construction Land Use" for the Xianiaowan Lithium Mine on June 17, with a validity period from June 17, 2026, to June 17, 2029. The administrative permit holder is Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., an indirectly controlled mining platform of CATL. This approval has a clear time characteristic: the original land use pre-approval document for the project was voluntarily applied for cancellation by the company only on June 8, and the complete process of canceling the old certificate and issuing the new one was completed within ten days. The swift implementation of policy procedures has significantly boosted market optimism about the rapid resumption of production at the mine.
However, judging from the statutory approval process for mineral development, mines do not meet the conditions for resuming production in the short term. The preliminary land-use review is merely a preparatory procedure conducted during the early planning stage of a project; subsequently, numerous provincial-level joint review procedures must still be completed in sequence, including delineating the mining area, reviewing the mineral resource development and utilization plan, filing environmental impact assessment and safety assessment reports, amending and issuing mining permits, and passing the acceptance inspection for safety production licenses. The entire process takes a long time, and currently, obtaining just a single land-use permit alone cannot support the rapid release of additional raw material supply in the short term.
Overseas Mining Side: In the long run, the supply-demand relationship for lithium carbonate is trending toward easing.
Zimbabwe: The first batch of lithium ore began shipping in mid-May. Several Chinese companies with operations in Zimbabwe reported that the lithium concentrate currently being exported is still en route by sea and is expected to arrive at Chinese ports from late June to early July. The bulk of the lithium ore is anticipated to reach ports in July. According to available information, Chinese companies already have approximately 5,000 tons of lithium concentrate on its way to destination.
Australian Mines: Bald Hill officially announced its restart on May 19, with the first batch of lithium spodumene expected to be produced in July. The first ore from Finniss will enter the processing line in the third quarter, and the Ngungaju concentrator is scheduled to begin formal commissioning in early July. These developments are fundamentally altering the “tight supply” situation, and we anticipate that increased supply will start to become evident in the fourth quarter of this year. Looking ahead, the supply-demand dynamics in the lithium carbonate market are trending toward greater balance.
Demand remains robust in China
Recently, the downstream market for lithium carbonate has shown a structural pattern characterized by stable demand from the automotive sector providing a solid foundation, strong growth driven by energy storage applications, and cautious procurement behavior. Power batteries remain the core pillar of demand; China's new-energy vehicle sales continue to grow modestly, while the increase in battery capacity per vehicle is offsetting the slowdown in overall sales growth. Production of lithium iron phosphate is steadily rising month-on-month. However, automakers and battery manufacturers are strictly controlling their raw material inventories, replenishing stocks only through small, on-demand orders and avoiding any large-scale stockpiling.
Energy storage is the core growth area, with lithium battery production in June showing a significant year-on-year increase. Energy storage cell orders are full, with schedules extended to the end of the year. The demand for energy storage from power generation and industrial and commercial sectors continues to grow, becoming the largest driver of lithium consumption. The demand from consumer electronics is extremely low and has a negligible impact on the market.
Overall downstream operations continue to show signs of recovery, and the industrial chain has entered a sustained destocking cycle. However, high warehouse receipts in futures markets are weighing on market sentiment, leaving downstream players largely in a wait-and-see attitude. Procurement is dominated by rigid demand, and short-term demand elasticity remains limited. The full-year growth rate will heavily depend on the realization of energy storage capacity installations.
Future Market Forecast:
Overall, the current balance between bulls and bears is even, with no clear unilateral driver. It is expected that lithium prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and specific developments still need to be monitored based on changes in China's market supply and demand.
