90% Production Limit! Yellow Phosphorus, Phosphoric Acid, PTA and Other Products Are in Short Supply

Recently, the domestic epidemic situation has seen a scattered outbreak again. As of 24:00 on December 22, a total of 143 confirmed cases have been reported in Xi'an, Shaanxi, and they have spilled to Yan'an, Xianyang, Dongguan, Guangdong and Beijing. Facing a severe and complicated epidemic situation. Since 0:00 on December 23, communities (villages) and units in Xi'an City have implemented closed management, suspended the city’s long-distance passenger transport lines, and advocated that citizens not leave the city if necessary and temporarily suspend business in non-essential places.

A local paint company posted a notice issued by the park, and the notice clearly stated that from 0:00 on December 23, the north gate of the first phase will be closed for management, and the south gate of the first, second and third phases will not be allowed to go out; there is a need People and vehicles entering the park must hold a 48-hour nucleic acid negative certificate, scan the code, and measure the temperature before entering the park, but they cannot go out after entering the park; foreign goods are not allowed to enter the park; if there is a demand for shipment, they will all be in the park. Dumping at the door.

Production cut by 90%, phosphorus chemical supply is threatened

my country is a big exporter of yellow phosphorus, and its production capacity is mainly distributed in the four provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Hubei. Yunnan is the province with the largest yellow phosphorus production capacity in my country, accounting for more than 50% of the country's production capacity. The top three companies in terms of production capacity are Yunnan Nanlin, Jiangyin Chengxing and Xingfa Chemical.

However, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei and other regions have limited operating rates. Yunnan, in particular, is affected by the dual control of energy consumption. The phosphorus chemical industry chain has reduced production by 90% until the end of the year, which constitutes a greater contribution to the supply of phosphorus chemical industry chain products. threaten.

Yellow Phosphorus

The current price of yellow phosphorus is 43,500 CNY/ton, and the quotations of Yunnan and Sichuan have reached 44,000 CNY/ton. The main reason for this round of price increase is that the downstream enterprises have high demand for stocking before the Spring Festival. At present, the domestic production capacity of yellow phosphorus is about 54% of the total production capacity, of which the operating rate in Sichuan is 66%, the operating rate in Yunnan is 51%, and the operating rate in Guizhou is only 37%. As a result, market supply is tight, but corporate orders are better, which also stimulated price increases to a certain extent.

Phosphoric acid

The rapid increase in the price of yellow phosphorus has brought cost pressures to downstream phosphoric acid companies. Due to the increase in the price of yellow phosphorus, thermal phosphoric acid enterprises have recently produced 12,000 CNY/ton in production costs. Some phosphoric acid enterprises have reduced their production capacity or stopped production because of the increase in the price of yellow phosphorus. At present, the price of phosphoric acid products in the second half of the year has risen from 7000 CNY/ton to 10940 CNY/ton, and the supply is in short supply. This year, the planting area of crops has expanded, the demand for fertilizers has increased, and the demand for phosphorous chemical products has grown rapidly. The demand is already in short supply.

PTA industry chain: severe restrictions in Zhejiang, Liaojiang, and tight PTA supply

PTA

In the distribution of PTA production capacity, the top three are Zhejiang Province, Liaoning Province and Jiangsu Province. Whether it is the severe epidemic in Zhejiang or the stricter energy consumption control in Jiangsu, it will give PTA companies the operating rate of production and cargo transportation. Here comes the impact. At the same time, the centralized overhaul of PTA devices at the end of the year also brought a reduction in the supply side, which gave a boost to the market.

Polyester

The distribution of polyester production capacity is basically the two provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu. In early December, there were epidemics in Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Hangzhou, Zhejiang. The PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester production capacities of Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Hangzhou accounted for 35% of the total domestic production capacity, respectively. 18%, 6%, 20%, and the current operating rate of the polyester plant is about 80%.

Chlor-alkali chemical industry chain: Affected by the policy of dual control of energy consumption, the situation of short supply continues
As one of the basic chemical industries, the chlor-alkali industry mainly produces caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), chlorine, hydrogen, etc. The main production capacity is distributed in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. At present, both places are subject to the dual control of energy consumption and are relatively strict.

soda ash

The soda ash industry is an industry with high carbon emissions and high energy consumption. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Shandong and other provinces. Overhaul of production and power restrictions policies has resulted in a shortage of local soda ash market supply. Due to factors such as weather and equipment failure, some enterprises have reduced their production load, so the overall operating load is not high. The average market prices of light soda ash and heavy soda ash are 3678 and 3681 CNY/ton respectively, which are about 185% and 157% higher than the price at the beginning of this year. The supply side shrinks, and the follow-up situation of soda ash in short supply will continue.

PVC

In the case of electricity curtailment and insufficient supply of raw material calcium carbide, the PVC industry operating rate this year has dropped by 6% to 76%. The province’s dual energy consumption control policies for energy-intensive industries may continue until next year, so the operating rate will still not be very high.

At the same time, the industrial silicon industry chain in Yunnan, the organic silicon industry chain in Guangdong and Zhejiang, and the epichlorohydrin industry chain in Shandong and Jiangsu have also frequently turned on "red lights" and are unable to operate normally. Major chemical towns such as Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang halted operations and halted shipping. Local chemical companies encountered obstacles in purchasing and sales, and production was naturally unsustainable. Many companies even said that they lose money when they start work, and it is better to suspend production and take a holiday and stop losses in time.