MTBE Prices Hit Seven-year All-time High in 2021

In the whole year of 2021, the MTBE market has stepped out of the "devil's pace", and the whole line is red, and the overall rise, with only four narrow declines. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic MTBE producers was 4083 CNY/ton on January 1, 2021, and the price on December 31 was 5716 CNY/ton, an overall increase of 39.98%. The lowest point of the price appeared at the beginning of the year, and the highest point appeared at the beginning of the fourth quarter at 6,820 CNY/ton on October 13, with a maximum amplitude of 67.02% throughout the year. 2021 MTBE max price hit a seven-year all-time high.

The MTBE market in 2021 is generally divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of the second quarter, and the price market is unilaterally rising rapidly; the falling stage is the middle line of the second quarter to the end of the third quarter, and the price market is volatile and sorted out; the third stage is From the beginning of the fourth quarter to the end of the year, prices fluctuated greatly.

In January, crude oil continued to remain high, giving the market some mental support. In addition to gasoline, there are plans to source gasoline in the first ten days of the month and the second ten days of the month, and the sales price of local refineries has risen, which has increased the demand for raw material MTBE; the raw material price has risen sharply. Intensified, merchants have a strong desire to stop losses; tight supply has accelerated the rapid upward trend of the MTBE market.

In February, the MTBE market continued to rise sharply, international oil prices continued to rise, and Brent once rose above the high price of US$67.04/barrel, giving confidence in commodities support. Driven by the continuous upward trend of crude oil, gasoline prices continue to rise, and the Spring Festival holiday coincides with the increase in gasoline merchants' demand for raw materials before and after the holiday. In March, the MTBE market rose first and then declined, and was still in an upward channel as a whole. However, in the second half of the month, as crude oil plummeted, the gasoline market began to decline for a short time, and downstream demand became weak. In addition, a large number of imports from the south arrived in Hong Kong, and the MTBE market opened a downward window, especially in the southern region, where the decline was large.

From April to May, due to the positive impact of supply and demand, the MTBE market continued to rise strongly at the beginning: on the one hand, some factories in Shandong and southern China have been undergoing maintenance, resulting in limited overall domestic supply, and less supply of goods from Northeast China has flowed into Shandong. Domestic consumption mainly consumes local resources; on the other hand, the demand for gasoline is relatively considerable, which once led to a situation of short supply in the region, and merchants took the opportunity to continuously increase prices. However, after the May Day holiday, the market ushered in short-term demand, and the market is still acceptable. With the end of the replenishment period, gasoline demand ushered in an off-season. Local refineries and main business units have successively entered into overhaul of refineries, gasoline production followed a decline, and the demand for raw material MTBE followed a decline.

From June to September, the domestic MTBE market was generally in a stage of shock and consolidation. The main factors of ups and downs are mainly concentrated in the following aspects: crude oil; the sharp rise and fall of crude oil prices have a great impact on the entire commodity market. Gasoline; changes in gasoline prices affect the purchase of MTBE, and supply and demand affect the MTBE market. In addition, the maintenance of factories and enterprises and the arrival of imported goods in Hong Kong affected the supply of MTBE. Until the end of the traditional peak season of gold, silver and silver, the MTBE market did not reach the highest value at the end of June.

Entering the fourth quarter, the MTBE market has entered a stage of sharp rises and falls. In October, international oil prices rose sharply, and Brent crude oil rose to a high of US$85.82 per barrel at one point, giving the MTBE market a strong positive support. Supported by the continuous rise in crude oil and the surge in diesel fuel, gasoline prices also rose sharply, sales were getting better, and the MTBE market continued to make strides to follow the rising demand for raw materials. However, after the price rose to a high level, the downstream cost increased greatly, and the enthusiasm of merchants to receive goods became weak. In addition, gasoline, raw material carbon 4 and isobutane opened the downward window, MTBE merchants were unable to stick to it, and prices fell sharply again.

In November, the price of MTBE first fell and then rose, but the overall price still showed a sharp decline. After the price rose to a high level, downstream demand turned weak, and with the decline of crude oil and the re-emergence of the epidemic, gasoline sales itself began to weaken, and the demand for raw material MTBE followed. Lack of downstream demand support, coupled with the impact of the sharp drop in raw material prices, hindered the sales of MTBE merchants.

In December, MTBE prices continued to fall. Gasoline fell step by step. Due to the tax inspection, the operating rate of gasoline in the northern region has dropped, coupled with its own weak sales, the demand for raw materials is low. In December, the pre-maintenance factories started one after another, especially in Shandong, which basically all resumed operation, and the supply followed a substantial increase, but the demand for gasoline was low, and the contradiction between supply and demand gradually intensified.

Recently, the overall rise of international crude oil has dominated, and the positive news has also effectively driven the intention of domestic oil market players to enter the market. The MTBE market has seen a situation of "buying and selling" in a short time. As the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, gasoline demand may be stable and improving, and downstream gasoline replenishment operations may increase, which will objectively have a certain boosting effect on MTBE demand. On the whole, there is still a certain expectation of replenishment in the gasoline market before the Spring Festival holiday. Although MTBE manufacturers have no pressure to ship for the time being, they will still maintain a reasonable low inventory before the Spring Festival holiday, and ensure the rhythm of shipments. It is mainly biased towards small shocks.