In October, China's BDO market showed a weak consolidation

October 31, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, the BDO market in China showed a weak consolidation. From October 1st to 31st, the price of BDO fell from 7,565 CNY/ton to 7,437 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 0.38% during the period, and a year-on-year price decrease of 13.81%.

In October, the BDO market in China was relatively weak and consolidating, with some plants undergoing maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, increasing supply-side support. Downstream demand increased month-over-month, but many downstream industries were incurring losses, leading to negotiations over raw material prices. As a result, the market remained in a stalemate due to the supply-demand tug-of-war.

Supply side: In terms of facilities, the Guotai Xinhua plant maintenance, Inner Mongolia Sanwei's catalyst replacement, Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua's short shutdown, and the reduction in load at Hengli's facility have all led to a decrease in supply volume. This provides some positive support on the supply side. The BDO supply situation is influenced by these positive factors.

Statistics on the maintenance and operational status of selected manufacturing enterprises:

Cost Perspective:
Regarding raw material calcium carbide, from the supply side, the impact of orderly power consumption in Inner Mongolia has eased somewhat, with some maintenance units resuming operations one after another, leading to a noticeable increase in supply. Meanwhile, downstream facilities are gradually finishing their maintenance shutdowns, resulting in a regional recovery in demand. However, currently, some enterprises still face inventory pressure, and while orderly power measures have occasionally helped alleviate stockpile buildup, overall market sentiment remains strongly bearish.

As for raw material methanol, the Chinese methanol market continues to remain weak. As of 3:00 PM on October 31, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, stood at 2,150 CNY per ton. With calcium carbide prices trending upward and methanol trading in a weak, consolidating range, the cost dynamics for BDO are mixed—showing both positive and negative influences.

Demand Side: Downstream industries are maintaining relatively steady operational activity, leading to increased consumption of raw materials. The BDO industry is witnessing a shift toward reduced supply and rising demand, with suppliers showing strong intentions to support market prices. Meanwhile, downstream sectors, having already secured ample raw material supplies earlier, are now focused on depleting existing inventories or fulfilling contracted orders. Additionally, under growing cost pressures, downstream buyers are less inclined to make spot purchases—and when they do, negotiations often result in lower prices, further weighing down the trend for raw materials. As a result, the BDO demand side is likely to face downward pressure from these negative factors.

Market Forecast: Chinese BDO plants are operating at relatively stable levels, ensuring a steady supply of goods and ample availability. However, the supply side provides only moderate support. Meanwhile, downstream demand remains driven by essential needs, which could lead to increased inventory pressure—potentially capping the upward movement of raw material prices. BDO analysts expect the Chinese BDO market to continue its weak performance in the near term.