Propylene Market Review 2021

Q1: the price rises and falls are more obvious. The low point appeared in January, and the main factor of price change was that the price returned to the high of 8150.0 CNY/ton at the end of 2020, which led to the rising cost pressure of downstream products. In addition, as the Spring Festival approached, enterprises were more willing to sell goods at profit, and the price fell to 6900.0 CNY/ton. The peak occurred in March. On the one hand, international oil price broke through the $60 mark and maintained a continuous upward trend, which boosted the market mentality and drove related products to rise at different levels. On the other hand, the downstream products polypropylene, propylene oxide, butanol products also perform well, especially octanol, n-butanol, propylene oxide products also set a new price record. Such products have full profit space, strong demand for raw materials, supporting propylene prices up to 8525 CNY/ton.

Q2: Propylene price fluctuations are relatively limited. In this stage, the domestic supply and demand capacity is gradually released, especially the downstream devices are put into production, and most of them are polypropylene devices, which improves the self-use rate of enterprises to a certain extent. At the same time, the shutdown phenomenon of PDH device increased significantly, resulting in a significant decrease in the overall flow of goods. Second, the market trend of downstream products in the second quarter is more high callback phenomenon, butanoctanol, propylene oxide although there are fluctuations, but such products still maintain a relatively rich profit space. However, polypropylene powder is affected by the high level of raw material propylene and the weak demand of downstream terminal, and the overall starting load in Shandong is less than 20%, which greatly inhibits the trend of raw materials, and the price presents a dilemma trend.

Q3: the price volatility of propylene is weak, especially from July to August, the supply reduction caused by device maintenance is still favorable, especially in Shandong and East China. Parts but a weak performance requirements, on the one hand, influenced by public health emergencies prevention and control to upgrade device starts the load fluctuation, on the other hand the main downstream terminal polypropylene plastic weaving industry is in the off-season, and other downstream octyl alcohol and epoxy propane plant maintenance is more, the overall support for raw material co., LTD., at 7650.0 to 7850.0 CNY/ton. In September, international crude oil broke through the peak again, while the "dual carbon" policy drove the polypropylene futures plate to continue high, thus driving the spot price trend is strong, and the raw material price gap gradually expanded, coupled with the downstream octanol, n-butanol, propylene oxide, acrylic acid have maintained a relatively rich profit space, propylene prices gradually higher. However, due to the release of propylene production capacity of Qingdao Jinneng Technology, and the continued export of goods, the negative release gradually highlights, the market bearish expectation increases, the price continues to rise, lack of confidence at 8050.0 CNY/ton.

Q4: propylene prices started strong, on the one hand, polypropylene futures continue to rise, positive market mentality. On the other hand, the peripheral source transportation in the section was blocked, the inventory of propylene enterprises in the region also remained low, the main downstream profit space recovered substantially, the starting load increased significantly, driving the overall market trading atmosphere, the price rose to 9700.0 CNY/ton, it can be said that the price of this year's new high. But as polypropylene futures decline, positive support is difficult to find, spot by high signs of falling, dragging on the raw material market. The prices of propylene and polypropylene both fell, once falling to a flat position, while the starting load of polypropylene factory dropped to a low point again, and the market trend of other downstream products also weakened, and the expectation of maintenance of individual devices aggravated the falling rhythm of propylene, and the price fell below 8000 yuan and went down again. At this stage, there are also new capacity releases in the region, while the main downstream polypropylene powder profits are in an upside down state, leading to continued market caution. Although the positive boost reappearance, but the overall difficult to have a good boost, the market price in 7400-7525 yuan near the shock hovering.