Methanol Market Trend Weakly Consolidated

September 05, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 1st to 4th (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of China fell from 2,253 CNY/ton to around 2,271 CNY/ton. During this period, the price increased by 0.81%, down 4.55% month-over-month, and down 4.78% year-over-year. The continuous increase in supply and the accumulation of inventory led to a reduction in prices to attract orders. Although downstream profits have been somewhat restored, the improvement is not yet significant, resulting in a weak and declining trend in the Chinese methanol market.

As of the close on September 5, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main contract 2601 for methanol futures opened at 2,381 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2,424 CNY/ton, and a low of 2,378 CNY/ton, closing at 2,415 CNY/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.47% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 684,742 lots, with an open interest of 777,813 lots, and a daily change in open interest of -24,180 lots.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of September 5, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

On the cost side, coal supply is recovering, while demand is declining seasonally. End-users are still replenishing their inventories due to immediate needs, leading to narrow price fluctuations and limiting support for methanol prices. Overall, cost-related factors are weighing more heavily on methanol prices.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side:
Acetic Acid: The acetic acid industry in Henan continues to operate at low capacity utilization levels, with Henan Shunda’s 450,000-ton-per-year flagship production unit remaining offline. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde industry in Henan maintains a capacity utilization rate of 51.44%, with operating rates staying stable. Dimethyl Ether: Henan’s dimethyl ether industry saw a month-on-month decline in operating load, primarily due to the planned shutdown of Xinlianxin’s 400,000-ton-per-year key facility for maintenance. Meanwhile, other regional producers continue to keep their plants idle and have yet to resume operations. Most downstream products are experiencing mixed demand dynamics, influenced by fluctuations in methanol prices.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Shanghai-Mongolia Energy plant maintenance; Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shanxi Linxin, Shanxi Coking, Xiaoyi Pengfei, and Ningxia Baofeng plants have resumed operations. Overall, the recovery volume exceeds the loss volume, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate. The methanol supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the international front, as of the close on September 4, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $321.5–$322.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 94–95 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market ended at €292.5–€293.5 per ton, down by €1 per ton.

The future market forecast indicates that the adjustment of purchase and sales rhythms in the upstream and downstream sectors, as well as fluctuations in freight rates, among other intertwined factors, will lead to a period of frequent price volatility in the methanol spot market. Methanol analysts predict that the Chinese methanol spot market will mainly experience fluctuating consolidation.