New production capacity focused on releasing acrylonitrile began to fall

Since the settlement of acrylonitrile factory in late December, the spot market price of acrylonitrile has fallen from 15000 CNY/ton to the current 12000 CNY/ton below, the decline has been more than 3000 CNY/ton, and there is still no sign of stopping the decline, individual solid low price transaction has reached 11500 CNY/ton. Before this, acrylonitrile prices have been running for more than half a year, until late December began with Lihua Yi and Sierbang three phase of new capacity, the industry fell into excess, thus opening the rapid decline mode.

Since the second half of 2021, Zhejiang Petrochemical phase ii 260,000 tons, Kerul phase II 130,000 tons, Lihua Yi 260,000 tons and Sierbang phase iii 260,000 tons of acrylonitrile four new units have been put into production, the new capacity reached 910,000 tons/year, the total domestic acrylonitrile production base reached 3.419 million tons/year. It is estimated that the annual domestic consumption of acrylonitrile in 2021 is about 2.6 million tons, and the production capacity has been significantly excess.

In the short term, winter Olympics and other factors will also affect the north part of the downstream acrylic fiber and amide production. In terms of export, the supply of ocean-going goods has also returned to the normal level, while the overall overseas demand is flat, and the price of external disks has been falling along with the domestic market, which has also impacted the export of domestic enterprises.

Under the background of oversupply, acrylonitrile prices fell rapidly, and most downstream users also entered a wait-and-see state, and the buyer's right to speak began to highlight. In addition, Lihua Yixin's products have been sold out and the spot pricing model has been adopted. However, before this, the spot market was frequently hit by low prices, putting pressure on manufacturers' pricing. At present, acrylonitrile price has begun to gradually close to the cost line level, next pay attention to factory quotation and production trend, the future for a period of time may need to reshape the supply and demand pattern by limiting production.