Methanol Market On The Rise In 2021

The domestic methanol market in 2021 can be described as "unpredictable". The methanol market in the first three quarters was mostly organized, with only a slight upward trend in early May. At the end of the third quarter, affected by the positive factors of the sharp rise in the raw material coal market, the methanol market has been "singing forward" all the way, and the price "going straight to the sky", reaching the "highest point" of the monitoring data in the past five years. At the beginning of 2021, the price was 2,310 CNY/ton. By the end of the year, as of December 31, 2021, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong area was 2,375 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.81% during the year. The lowest price of the whole year appeared on February 8 before the Lunar New Year at the beginning of the first quarter, with a price of 2,252 CNY/ton, and the highest price occurred on September 30 at the end of the third quarter, with a price of 3,612 CNY/ton, and the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 60.38%.

In the methanol industry price change list in 2021, a total of 8 commodities have risen, a total of 0 commodities have fallen, and a total of 0 commodities have risen or fallen to 0. The main commodities that rose were: DMF (102.98%), acetic acid (41.76%), MTBE (39.98%); the average change this year was 27.88%.

In the first quarter, the domestic methanol market trend showed an "M" shape, and the overall market was sluggish. The price rose from 2,310 CNY/ton to 2,377 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.92%, with a maximum amplitude of 7.53%.

In January, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation was severe again, the domestic methanol trade transportation capacity was affected, the production area was not smooth, and the coal price at the cost side was loosened, the cost support weakened, and the price in the main production area dropped significantly. Near the end of the year, although the traditional downstream construction has declined, the willingness to replenish the downstream inventory has weakened, and the market transaction atmosphere tends to be light, but the port still maintains the trend of destocking under the background of shrinking imports, and the decline in prices in consumer areas is obviously not as good as that in production areas.

After the Chinese New Year in February, the domestic methanol market rose slowly. In the context of the substantial improvement in the entire bulk commodity market, the methanol market performance seemed to be a bit "out of tune": the price growth was slow, the market price rose slightly, and the methanol market performance seemed "Slow half a beat". With the approaching of the spring inspection, the domestic methanol market trend is obviously regionalized.

In March, China's methanol market ran in an "N" pattern, and the center of gravity in various places moved up compared with February. In the middle and early days of the macro news, the overall driving force of the market is more obvious in the face of energy and chemical products. The domestic methanol market is slowly rising. Under the circumstance that the entire bulk commodity market is improving substantially, the methanol market performance seems to be somewhat "out of tune": the price growth is slow, the market price rise is small, and the methanol market performance seems to be "half a beat". With the approaching of the spring inspection, the domestic methanol market trend is obviously regionalized.

In the second quarter, the domestic methanol market trend showed an inverted "V" shape. The price rose from 2,377 CNY/ton to 2,555 CNY/ton, an increase of 7.47%, with a maximum amplitude of 15.05%.

In April, the daily limit reached the daily limit, and the domestic methanol market in April was "climbing the stairs". According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of April 8, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2395 CNY/ton, and the price increased by 2.57% month-on-month. A year-on-year increase of 39.65%. Some production enterprises in the northwest raised their ex-factory quotations, and prices were firmed by futures. The downstream just needed to replenish after the holiday, and the domestic methanol market rose in a narrow range. However, the good times did not last long, and the low-priced supply of destocking at the port still hit the market. In addition, the downstream acceptance capacity was limited, and the follow-up of the firm was insufficient, so the price increase could not last.

In May, China's methanol market showed a strong trend, and the overall performance of ports was stronger than that of the mainland. From the perspective of the main drivers, in addition to the collective surge in bulk commodities caused by rising inflation expectations, fundamental factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices to provide strong cost support, and the lack of port arrivals and the continued destocking of warehouses should not be ignored.

In June, China's methanol market showed a trend of first decline and then growth, and the centers of gravity in all regions fell month-on-month. During the period, the interaction of fundamental and macro news has a driving impact on the methanol market. Taking the Dragon Boat Festival as a boundary, the pre-holiday market operation mostly depends on the interpretation of negative factors such as the increasing contradiction between supply and demand, poor olefin profits, and short selling by traders. Since the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the strong upward movement of crude oil, coal and other energy sources has led to the shrinking of local supply and the strengthening of cost support. The logical driving force has become prominent. In conjunction with the advance stocking of goods in the middle and lower reaches before the 7.1 festival, the spot markets in the mainland and ports have rebounded to varying degrees.

The methanol market in the third quarter was "smooth" initially, and began to rise sharply in mid-September. The price rose from 2555 CNY/ton to 3612 CNY/ton, an increase of 41.39%.

The methanol market was sluggish in July-August. In the first ten days of August, the methanol market continued to be sluggish in July. Affected by the overhaul of major production enterprises, the domestic methanol market price has risen steadily since mid-August. Due to the limited supply in the mainland affected by the double control, the inventory of enterprises has decreased, the coal price has once again reached a record high, and the cost support is obvious.

The international crude oil price fluctuated upwards, the thermal coal price remained high, and the futures were more optimistic about the market outlook. The domestic methanol market rose sharply in September, which lasted for a long time, and the price broke a five-year "new high".

On the one hand, the supply side has the expected increase in supply side such as the restart of maintenance equipment and the heavy volume of 09 contract delivery. On the other hand, under the expectation of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", downstream demand such as formaldehyde and MTBE is likely to increase, and the market supply and demand may maintain a tight trend. However, considering the time difference, it is expected that the market supply will be concentrated in the first ten days, and the demand will be concentrated in the second ten days, and the market may show a trend of first decline and then rising. At the same time, crude oil has been fluctuating at a high level recently, coal supply remains tight, methanol cost support is still strong, and the methanol market continues to rise.

At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the methanol market can still continue the "golden nine silver ten" situation, but the good times are not long, and it will go down unilaterally. The price fell from 3,612 CNY/ton to 2,545 CNY/ton, a decrease of 29.55%, with a maximum amplitude of 43.19%.

In October, the domestic methanol spot market rose first and then fell, and the overall situation was still high. The main reason is that downstream replenishment supports the market after the holiday, but some MTO companies in the northwest sell methanol for takeaways, and the supply side has increased, and the market has been "downward". In the middle of the month, the domestic methanol spot market plummeted, and the overall situation was still high. The main reason is that methanol is sold out in the northwest, but the sales are average, and the inventory of enterprises has increased. In the second half of the month, the methanol market fell sharply, mainly due to the sharp drop in thermal coal prices. After the price fell one after another, with the issuance of the thermal coal policy intervention provisions, the methanol futures market has undergone a new round of sharp decline.

The methanol market continued to fall in November, mainly due to the low price of raw coal, which was affected by the policy. Although coal prices have stopped falling, policy pricing is still in place, and coal prices have been sorted out at a low level. The news that some MTO installations were scheduled to restart this week has not materialized, and the positive expectations have been shattered. Some industry players lack support, while traditional downstream demand companies are just in need, and there is no obvious heavy volume. The methanol market fell significantly.

From December to the end of the year, the methanol market fell sharply. Due to the decline in coal prices and the weakening of methanol cost support, olefin companies such as Baofeng sold methanol for takeaway, and some methanol plants were restored, and the supply side was relatively abundant, resulting in the price focus of the domestic methanol market continued to decline. , The transaction volume is difficult, and the market mentality is cautious.