Macro factors unstable oil price shock higher will be the main tone

    Last week (March 21 to March 25), international oil prices ended two consecutive weeks of declining sentiment to achieve a rise. As of the close of business on March 25, the NYMEXWTI crude oil futures for May delivery rose by a cumulative 9.02% during the period to close at $112.60 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose by a cumulative 10.89% during the period to close at $119.98 per barrel; the main contract of crude oil futures at the Shanghai Futures Institute also rose by a cumulative 7.21% during the week to close at $734.5 per tonne.

　　In this regard, senior analyst An Ziwei of the East China Institute of Derivatives Energy told reporters: "This week, crude oil prices remained at a high level of wide fluctuations in the upward trend, mainly by geopolitical factors.

　　In analyzing the reasons for the rise in international oil prices, Liu Youhua, head of research at Private Equity Platoon, told reporters: "It is still mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil. From the demand side, the global economy is gradually recovering and the overall demand for crude oil is showing a growth trend. But on the supply side, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States are the three major crude oil producers, crude oil production has declined due to factors such as the epidemic, and geopolitical factors have only exacerbated market concerns about the supply of Russian crude oil." "In addition crude oil and gold, as safe-haven assets, have driven up crude oil prices in a tense geopolitical environment with risk premiums."

　　Fu Ze Zheng, a senior researcher in the equity department of Yuan Rong Investment, told reporters, "The recent rise in international oil prices was also influenced by the latest crude oil and refined oil inventories released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which fell beyond expectations."

　　For the future trend of international oil prices, analyzed from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, An Ziwei said, "The main conflict is still on the supply side. Oil-producing countries are currently not showing a strong willingness to expand production, the core problem facing the market is that underinvestment makes most oil-producing countries unable to respond quickly to sustained price increases, a dilemma that has actually existed for a long time. Low inventories and idle capacity decline are on oil prices constitute a positive support, oil prices still have the potential to rise."

　　Pay Ze Zheng analysis said, "Looking ahead, many macro factors are still unstable, such as geopolitics and global supply chain imbalances and other factors will intensify the risk of crude oil supply, oil prices are expected to shock higher will be the main tone."

　　For the impact of rising international oil prices, Fu Ze Zheng said, "From the industrial end, crude oil is the raw material for many chemical materials, and continued high oil prices are bound to raise the average cost of domestic producers, which will greatly affect the profitability of producers if the cost cannot be effectively passed on to the consumer side." But from another point of view, it is also conducive to promoting China to improve the efficiency of oil utilization, and promote to accelerate the layout of overseas oil resources reserves, expand the investment in clean energy, and ultimately reduce the degree of oil dependence on foreign countries to optimize China's energy structure.