Coal prices will not fall much

After a cumulative increase of 20 CNY/ton in Port coal prices, the open warehouse price of 5500 cards has risen to 616 CNY/ton. Entering this week, the port coal price rises weakly, the downstream counter-offer price is on the low side, the game between supply and demand intensifies, and the trading volume shrinks. At this time, the weather in the southern coastal areas continues to cool, and frequent rainfall, resulting in the downstream power plant daily consumption continues to maintain a low level. At present, the coastal coal market is not warm, the port coal import and export are balanced, and there are not many anchor ships in each port. Coal prices began to fall on Friday, and are expected to fall by a limited margin due to various factors. Inventory of Bohai Rim Ports continued to decline. From the point of view of the inventory changes of the Bohai Rim Port, some traders have not actively shipped coal since mid-June. In addition, the coal supply of the main producing areas is affected by environmental protection and automobile transportation restrictions, so the railway entry decreases, and the inventory of the Bohai Rim Port continues to decline. At present, the stocks of all ports remain low; among them, Qinhuangdao Port and Guotou Caofeidian Port have 567,640 tons of coal, which are 33,118,000 tons lower than that of June 10, respectively. The pit price continues to be firm.

Although the demand for coal market has weakened since mid-last month, and the price of coal pit mouth has been reduced, the price of coal pit mouth has come back to normal. However, from last week, due to environmental protection and safety inspection, the price of coal in Erdos, Inner Mongolia and Northern Shanxi has risen steadily and slightly, the supply of coal is tight, and the price of coal pit mouth is still supported. In July, the port coal price is still hanging upside down, the enthusiasm of downstream end users to purchase increases, and the coal mine inventory decreases. In addition, with the arrival of "peak summer" and the increase of civilian electricity load, some traders continue to be optimistic about the follow-up coal market, and some high-quality Mongolian coal shippers are still actively bidding. There is still room for daily consumption of power plants to rise.

According to the coal consumption of six major power plants along the coast, it is in the median level of 62-650,000 tons, and the available days of coal storage in power plants are as high as 28 days. Affected by the continuous rainfall in the South and the increase of hydropower output in the early stage, the thermal power is reduced and the civil power load is not high. In addition, under the background of Sino-US trade war, the macro-environment of energy consumption is worsening, which makes the overall coal demand weak and the downstream pulling enthusiasm low. But with the arrival of hot weather, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is expected to continue to increase. It is expected that from late July to early August, the daily consumption of the six major power plants along the coast will rise to a high level of more than 700,000 tons, which will help the market continue to improve and the market coal haulage volume will maintain a growth trend.

Coal price will rise weakly, and will appear a downward trend. Even if the port coal price falls, coal price will still support under the pull of better shipping cost and demand. The expected decline is limited to about 5-10 CNY/ton. In the second half of July, port coal prices still have a chance to rebound.