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    Home > CPI announced a year-on-year increase or more than 2% for 4 consecutive months

    CPI announced a year-on-year increase or more than 2% for 4 consecutive months

    Echemi 2019-07-23


    According to the schedule, the National Bureau of Statistics will publish the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 10. The market expects that the CPI growth rate in June will remain in the "Era 2" for the fourth consecutive month.

    Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, hitting a new 15-month high, driven by the rising prices of pork, fruit and other foods. What is the trend of CPI in June to be published? In this regard, the market is generally expected to continue to increase CPI in June by more than 2% year-on-year, but there are differences on whether the increase will continue to expand or fall.

    Some analysts believe that the CPI increase in June will be slightly lower than the same period last year. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications (5.770, 0.00, 0.00%) analyzed that the sufficient supply of vegetables in June led to a sustained decline in vegetable prices, a decrease in the price of refined oil, and a sustained rise in pork prices due to reduced supply. CPI in June is expected to increase by 2.5% to 2.7% year-on-year, with a median of 2.6% compared with the previous month. There is a fall.

    There are also organizations that believe that CPI growth in June will continue to expand year-on-year. Hua Changchun, chief economist of Guotai Junan (17.780, 0.00, 0.00%) said that most of the sub-items of food prices remained stable in June, but the prices of fish, fruit and meat rose significantly, supporting prices remained stable, and CPI was expected to rise slightly to 2.8% in June compared with the same period last year. According to the data of

    Wind, the average forecast value of CPI increase in June by 20 research institutes is 2.7%. Among them, the maximum value is 2.9% and the minimum value is 2.5%. What is the price trend of pork, vegetables and fruits?

    Since a period of time, the prices of pork, fruits, vegetables and other necessities have risen to varying degrees, which has aroused the attention of all sectors of society.

    Wang Bin, deputy director of market operation Department of Ministry of Commerce, said on July 2 that in the near future, with the temperature rising, vegetables and fruits were listed in large quantities in season, the prices of fruits and vegetables showed a general downward trend, and pork prices also slowed down compared with the previous period. From the data monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables in 36 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 3.7% from June 24 to June 30, 11.9% from the beginning of May, 0.2% from the previous week and 3.3% from the previous week. Meng Wei, spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said earlier that the rise in fruit prices was mainly due to abnormal weather factors, and that the rise was unsustainable. With the large number of seasonal fruit on the market, the price would fall back to the normal range relatively quickly. What is the CPI trend in the second half of the year? Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance, Renmin University of China, said that although the CPI increase is still within the control of 3% year-on-year, due to the great changes in the external environment, it may increase the cost of some consumer goods, and then transmit to the product price side, leading to the expansion of CPI increase. Lu Yanchun, director of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, had predicted that May and June of this year would be the highs of CPI for the whole year, and that there would be a slight rebound at the end of the year. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of 30 vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kilogram last week (July 1-7), up 2.7 percent from the previous week; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 8.87 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4 percent; and the wholesale price of pork was 23.29 yuan per kilogram, up 0.7 percent.

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