Daily consumption in power plants causes coal prices to rise dramatically

The sustained high temperatures in the South have finally led to a rapid increase in the daily consumption of power plants; as of yesterday, the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants had risen to 730,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Southern weather has entered a high temperature and hot state, boosting the market to gradually improve. Traders are bidding one after another. Some trades are leveled or floated by an index of 2-3 yuan per ton, and no longer traded by a float. After a two-week sustained decline in the price of power coal, the price of power coal has stabilized under the influence of weather warming, increasing daily consumption, tightening imports and several safety accidents. The price of power coal in Bohai harbor has stabilized around 595 CNY/ton and is ready to develop.

The plum rain season ended in many places in the south. With the advent of "three-volt days", the temperature of all parts of the country gradually increased. The load regulation of the Southern Power Grid in Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Hainan reached a new record, breaking through the 180 million kilowatt barrier for the first time. The Meiyu period of Jiangsu Province's super-long standby has just passed, and the "high temperature barbecue" mode comes one after another. Since July 20, there has been a continuous high temperature over 35 degrees Celsius in most parts of Jiangsu Province. Driven by the continuous high temperature, the dispatching load of Jiangsu power grid has increased sharply, and the coal consumption of power plants has increased. To a large extent, the demand of downstream areas has been boosted and the coal market has improved. At present, the daily consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal areas has risen to 730,000 tons, and the following weather is expected to continue to heat up, which will increase the civil power load. In addition, coal import restrictions continue to be strengthened. The 70th anniversary of the National Day and activities such as the "Second Youth League" in Shanxi affect coal supply, which will stimulate the market to become better and form a certain support for domestic coal prices.

Coal market has strong expectations for the recovery of daily consumption from late July to August, but there are still unfavorable factors for the coal market, and it is difficult for coal prices to rise substantially. 1. Coal storage in power plants is too high, basically covering the first ten days of August. Coastal power plants are mostly active in inventory removal. 2. Port stocks have rebounded. The coal storage in Qingang, the representative main coal port, has reached the median level of 6.28 million tons. The coal storage in Caofeidian Port of Guotou has also risen to 4.84 million tons. 3. Under the call of the Development and Reform Commission to "meet the peak and spend the summer" and ensure supply, the upstream coal-generating enterprises have increased production and transportation, and the transportation of Daqin Line, Shuohuang Line and Mengji Line is in good condition. The transportation volume has remained high, and the price of coal pit mouth has steadily declined.

In the Bohai Rim Port, although the price of coal has stabilized and stopped dropping, and some kinds of coal have risen slightly, most of the transactions are between traders, and the real purchasing power has not yet formed. The downstream counter-offer price is still on the low side, and the enthusiasm of coal purchase market is not high, so the anchor ship under the Bohai Rim Port keeps low, resulting in the slow rise of coal price. The author predicts that unless the daily consumption of coastal power plants continues to exceed 700,000 tons, or even close to 800,000 tons, the market will further improve, leading to an increase in the number of coal purchases in the market and a rise in coal prices; otherwise, in the face of high inventories, the rise in coal prices will be limited.