Shenhua price has fallen, will the coal price of the port fall?

Last night, the National Energy Group announced its monthly long association price in August. Among them, the price of 5500 big cards was 599 CNY/ton, which was the same as the previous period. The price of 5000 big cards was 10 CNY/ton lower than the previous period. In the current peak summer coal season, the National Energy Group suddenly lowered its monthly long-term price, will it pour a basin of cold water on the "silly" port coal price?

Think tanks today are concerned that in recent days, with the continuous spread of high-temperature weather throughout the country, daily consumption of downstream power plants continues to rise, breaking through the high level of 800,000 tons for many times, the peak season characteristics of power coal terminal consumption appear, market sentiment has improved, and ports have been pushing up prices, causing coal prices to continue to rise. However, from the downstream market point of view, at present, the six coastal power plants have not started the inventory process because of the rising daily consumption, and the inventory is still running at a high level of about 17.5 million tons. Under the influence of high inventory, coastal power plants are still mainly consuming existing stocks, coupled with the stable supply of Changxie coal, and the power of incremental procurement is still insufficient. It is not difficult to find that the slow process of inventory de-industrialization of coastal power plants will directly suppress the high price of coal in peak season.

But from the perspective of power coal market as a whole, think tanks today believe that the price of port coal still has strong cost support. The data of raw coal production of Enterprises above the national scale published recently by the State Statistics Bureau in the first half of 2019 show that the output of raw coal in Shaanxi region has decreased by 8.2 percentage points compared with the previous year, and some of the main production can be seen. The actual capacity release of geodynamic coal is still relatively difficult. As one of the main destinations of high-quality coal resources in northern ports, the reduction of coal production in Shaanxi in the first half of the year may bring strong demand and cost support for the next purchase of high-quality coal resources in ports, which will further boost the price of coal in ports. Taken together, think tanks today believe that even if the National Energy Group lowered its monthly price in August, it does not mean that there will be a significant downward trend in coal prices in August. Under the premise that the downstream demand has not been fully released, the strength of the power plant inventory process will directly determine the rebound height of coal prices. According to the latest official weather forecast, in the next few days, there will be more stormy weather in South China and South China Sea, but there will still be periodic high temperature weather in some areas such as the central and eastern parts of the Yangtze River, the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and the daily consumption of power plants will continue to rise. As long as the daily consumption continues to maintain high and medium level operation, the coal price of the port will remain stable and rising. The situation.