Crude oil prices fall, domestic refined oil retail prices are about to be reduced

November 24, News

The current round of China's refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on November 24. The retail price of refined oil is about to decrease. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced seven increases, nine decreases, and six suspensions. During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly declined, and the crude oil change rate has remained negative. The 2025 refined oil retail price adjustment will see its "tenth" decrease.

As the current pricing cycle began, international oil prices edged slightly lower. By the 21st, the settlement price for the January WTI crude oil futures contract stood at $58.06 per barrel, while the February Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.94 per barrel.

During this adjustment period, crude oil prices continued their mild downward trend. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced a new round of production increases, yet market concerns persist over the long-term risk of supply surplus. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the region have eased somewhat, but weaker U.S. demand, coupled with ongoing U.S. tariff issues that are weighing on global economic growth and dampening demand expectations, have contributed to the slight decline in international oil prices.

By the 24th, the 10th working day of the cycle, the change rate for crude oil benchmarks reached -1.61%. This translates to a reduction of 70 CNY per ton for gasoline and 65 CNY per ton for diesel in China—equivalent to a drop of 0.05 yuan per liter for 89# gasoline, 0.06 yuan per liter for 92# and 95# gasolines, and 0.06 yuan per liter for #0 diesel.

On the gasoline front: Shandong's independent refineries are operating relatively steadily, with utilization rates remaining unchanged. On average, these refineries in Shandong maintain an operating rate of around 54%, while China's major refinery operators continue to run at nearly 86% capacity. Meanwhile, supply of refined oil products from independent refineries has seen a slight uptick. Recently, residential travel and other activities have largely returned to normal, but this has only deepened the cautious sentiment in China's gasoline market, further dampening trading activity. Additionally, the growing popularity of new-energy vehicles continues to weigh on demand, resulting in weaker-than-expected market performance. As a result, gasoline prices are currently fluctuating at low levels.

Diesel: Recently, the diesel market supply in China has been normal, with demand mainly driven by essential needs. As the autumn harvest in agriculture is nearing its end, the consumption of agricultural fuel has increased compared to before. The demand from infrastructure and logistics sectors is average. Additionally, with the end of the fishing ban in northern China, the demand for marine fuel has also increased. Furthermore, the transition to -10# diesel in northern regions has led to a slight rise in the diesel market.

Looking ahead: Recent risks in the crude oil supply have not been eliminated, and international oil prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, providing limited cost support to China's refined oil market. In the short term, refinery operating rates in China are relatively stable, with a loose supply of refined oil. Additionally, bearish news may limit market sentiment. Moreover, as the influence of winter increases, the demand for diesel is expected to be suppressed, and gasoline demand is also unlikely to improve.