The price of this round of coal may fall to its lowest level this year.

Coal prices at ports, which have fallen since last Friday, can't stop a bit. In the case of declining civilian power load, sluggish industrial power consumption and high inventory of power plants, the number of spot purchases has decreased, and users have a strong sense of price reduction. So far, no signs of stabilization of coal prices have been seen.

Review the change of port coal price trend since this year. In the off-season of coal use this year, there have been several declines in coal prices. Coal prices have fallen the most severely twice. On February 12, the price of power coal in the 5500-card market dropped to 585 CNY/ton, and on June 17, to 595 CNY/ton. It is estimated that this decline will exceed the previous two declines, and coal prices are expected to fall to 580 CNY/ton before stabilizing.

The first two coal price trends fell to 585 yuan and 595 CNY/ton respectively, then stabilized and stopped the decline, and then rose. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, the coal storage in power plants was not high at that time, and some users also had the consciousness of replenishing storehouse, so the coal market was very active. Secondly, the price of coal fell in February, mainly due to the off-season use of coal during the Spring Festival, but after the 15th of January, with the resumption of downstream industrial enterprises, the demand for coal increased, and the price of coal soon rose. On June 17, the price of coal dropped to 595 yuan, stabilizing and stopping the decline, with a slight increase. The main reason is that the daily consumption of coal in power plants is increasing near the peak of summer, which stimulates the demand for downstream coal.

The price of coal fell more severely this time for the following reasons:

1. The release of advanced production capacity accelerated, and the growth rate of raw coal production increased significantly. Advanced production capacity is released centrally, especially in summer. Under the call of the Reform and Reform Commission to increase production and ensure the demand for coal in summer, coal production in all coal-producing areas is released faster and coal supply in the market is sufficient.

2. Railway and port speed up transportation. In recent years, the newly put into operation of Huaneng, Huaneng Coal Phase II and Huadian Coal Terminal have added 150 million tons of transportation capacity. Among them, Huaneng Coal Terminal and Huaneng Coal Phase II have gradually formed capacity, approaching the production level, while the Mengji Railway Line is also increasing its transportation capacity. The coal transportation capacity of the whole Bohai Sea port has been improved, the turnover of goods has been accelerated, and the coal can be delivered to users in time. In addition, the strong landing of imported coal in the domestic coastal market has also largely supplemented the inventory of power plants and curbed the rebound in domestic coal prices.

3. The downstream demand is weak. In mid-July, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was only 600,000 tons, which was a low level in recent years. By the end of July, the daily consumption of the six major power plants along the coast had risen sharply to about 800,000 tons, but it did not last long. After less than a week, they turned around and fell to 680,000 tons. With the arrival of a new round of rainfall in the south, the coal consumption of the power plants was not optimistic, and the stock of the power plants continued to maintain a high level.

The main producing area sells poorly and the coal price is weaker. For port traders, although the cost is inverted, the daily consumption of downstream power plants declines rapidly, resulting in cold demand, but they have no choice but to reduce the quotation, and the coal price of the port continues to fall.